POWER: German Spot Power to Extend Gains on Lower Wind
The German spot power index is expected to rise with forecast for lower wind output. German front-month power is retreating with losses in the energy complex, despite a downward revision in temperature forecasts.
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 2% at 108.01 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 1.1% at 81.7 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 down 1.5% at 56.91 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 down 8.3% at -20.9957 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is edging higher after a pullback late yesterday as the market weighs risks of tight summer supplies and possible subsidies in Germany for refilling gas storage.
- EU ETS December 2025 allowances are pulling back with losses in EU gas prices ahead of the release of the COT data today. There will be no auction today.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to decrease to 10.25GW during base load on Thursday, down from 16.12GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggested mean temperatures have been revised lower to remain below the seasonal average throughout the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to fall to1.3C on Thursday, down from 3.4C on Wednesday and below the seasonal average of 3.9C.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall to 63.35GW on Thursday, down from 63.59GW on Wednesday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to rise to 50.78GWh/h on Thursday, up from 44.17GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been revised higher on the day to end at 200GWh on 26 February, compared with 94GWh a day earlier.
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EURJPY TECHS: Trades Through Support
- RES 4: 164.90 THigh Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 2: 163.43 High Jan 9
- RES 1: 162.55 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 160.89 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 160.65 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11
The recent move down in EURJPY appears corrective, however the cross is again trading lower, today, and this has resulted in a breach of initial support at 160.91, the Jan 2 low. The next support to watch is 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. A reversal higher would signal the end of the corrective cycle and refocus attention on 164.90, the Dec 30 high.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 89.26/89.30.
EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
- Estox 50: -0.43%, Dax: -0.14%, CAC: -0.45%, FTSE -0.00%, SMI -0.12%.
VGH5 (Estoxx) has been falling in the past hour and hovers at session low.
