POWER: German Spot Power to Fall Sharply
The German spot power index is expected to fall sharply with forecasts suggesting significantly higher wind output and slightly lower demand on Friday. German front-month power is trading higher, closely tracking higher EU gas prices.
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 1.5% at 106.75 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.5% at 81.51 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 up 1.1% at 54.04 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 up 11.1% at -14.7392 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is edging back up towards the high of €54.8/MWh from early this week as a cold weather forecast through the first half of Feb adds pressure to already low gas storage.
- EU ETS December 2025 are struggling to find a clear direction on Thursday morning, with upside pressure from higher EU gas prices. German factory orders rose above economist expectations by 6.9% m/m in December vs a revised -5.2% in November. Factory orders fell 6.3% y/y vs est. -10.5% y/y. The next EU ETS CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET.
- Reuters analyst forecasts expect German spot base-load power at €118.3/MWh for Friday’s delivery, compared with €150.09/MWh on Thursday
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 25.99GW on Friday during base load, up from 8.49GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
- The latest 2-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures mean temperatures will remain in line with the average for the remainder of this week before falling below the average.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to edge down to 3.1C on Friday, from 3.4C on Thursday and below the average of 3.5C.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 61.37GW on Friday, down from 62.19GW on Thursday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to decline to 28.89GWh/h on Friday, down from 51.77GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been revised lower to end at -206GWh on 20 February, down from -177GWh a day earlier.
- Uniper’s 1.05GW Datteln 4 hard-coal power plant was scheduled to restart on Wednesday.
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EGB SYNDICATION: Belgium EUR 10y Benchmark Guidance
- EUR Benchmark 10Y Fixed (June 22, 2035) MS+68 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act, short first
- Issuer: Kingdom of Belgium Government Bond (BGB)
- Format: Reg S CAT1, dematerialized, senior unsecured, 144a eligible
- Settlement: Jan. 14, 2025
- Denoms: 0.01 x 0.01
- ISIN: BE0000363722
- Bookrunners: BNPP (B&D), CA-CIB, HSBC, JPM, MS
(As per Bloomberg).
USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4674 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4305 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 1.4322/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4155 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD traded lower Monday. The trend set-up remains bullish and a move down appears corrective - for now. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4322, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would open 1.4155, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6400 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6273/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6275 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
Despite Monday’s gains, a bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6276, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced but for now, remains intact.
