POWER: German Spot Power to Rise on Lower Wind
German spot power is expected to rise with forecasts for lower wind output. The German March power base-load contract is trading higher with support from gains in the energy complex amid forecasts for colder weather and a downward revision in wind output forecasts.
- Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 1.3% at 103.7 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.6% at 81.36 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas MAR 25 up 1.4% at 52.78 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 up 5.6% at -15.4668 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is regaining ground with support from cool temperatures in NW Europe adding further pressure to storage withdrawals as the market weighs the impact from rising US trade tensions with China.
- EU ETS December 2025 allowances are edging higher today with gains in EU gas prices ahead of the release of the latest COT data on Wednesday morning.
- The next Polish ETS CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET. The next UKA ICE auction will clear at 14:00GMT.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to decline to 9.32GW during base load on Thursday, down from 12.82GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures have been revised lower to remain below the 30-year normal throughout the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to edge down to 3C on Thursday, down from 3.1C on Wednesday.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 61.56GW on Thursday, down from 61.76GW on Wednesday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to increase to 50.41GWh/h on Thursday, up from 45.25GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been revised higher to end at -109GWh on 19 February, compared with -138GWh a day earlier.
- Uniper’s 1.05GW Datteln 4 hard-coal power plant is scheduled to return on Wednesday with output expected to ramp up from midday local time. The plant has been offline since 12 October.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: 1.4678 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4389 @ 08:08 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4320/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4320, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6400 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6276 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6232 @ 08:03 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6276, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6006.92/6107.50 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
- PRICE: 5999.25 @ 07:45 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 5911.25/5866.00 Low Jan 3 / Dec 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. Attention is on 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of this level is required to open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
