POWER: German Spot to Rise on Lower Wind
German front month power is trading higher, closely tracking EU gas market moves. The German spot power index is expected to rise with forecasts for renewables output.
- Germany Base Power APR 25 up 1.2% at 77 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.3% at 68.59 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas APR 25 up 1.3% at 42.035 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 up 4.9% at -18.793 EUR/MWh
- TTF front month is holding just above the low of €40.82/MWh from Feb. 26 as the market weighs EC recommended flexibility in reaching gas storage targets but still with the pre winter 90% target.
- EUAs Dec25 allowances opened higher with gains in EU gas, before falling back down, closely mirroring movements in EU equities. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00CET.
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecast for Dusseldorf suggests mean temperatures have been revised down on the day with temperatures above normal until 10 March, after which temperatures will fall below normal. Mean temperatures are seen to rise back up at the end of the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast to rise to 9.5C on Friday, up from 8.3C on Thursday and above the seasonal average of 5.7C.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to fall to 7.96GW during base load on Friday, down from 14.53GW on Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to edge down to 21.15GW during peak load on Friday, down from 22.07GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 56.68GW on Friday, down from 58.12GW on Thursday according to Bloomberg.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to increase to 39.59GWh/h on Friday, up from 34.74GWh/h on Thursday according to Reuters.
- Germany’s hydro balance has been slightly revised down to end at -247GWh on 20 March, from -240GWh a day earlier.
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Historical bullets
SILVER TECHS: Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1
- RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $31.737 - High Jan 30
- PRICE: $31.479 @ 08:05 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: $29.704/28.748 - Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Silver continues to trade at its recent highs. A bear cycle that started on Oct 23 last year remains in play and recent gains are considered corrective. However, the latest move higher does suggest scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. Support to watch is $29.704, the Jan 27 low, and $28.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4435 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 1.4398 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.4290 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
USDCAD traded sharply higher Monday, before reversing lower into the close. Despite the pullback, Monday’s gains reinforce and strengthen bullish conditions. The break higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and sets the scene for a climb towards 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.4398, the 20-day EMA (pierced).
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 92.70/92.74 range.
