RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF model for the next seven days as of Wednesday afternoon.
- Both models have similar wind forecasts on 10 January and 14 January, with the smallest deviations on those days. Wind estimates for those days show only 0.26GW and 0.46GW, respectively, differences.
- The largest deviations are seen on 11 January and 15 January as SpotRenewables estimates lower wind over those days compared to ECMWF. Wind estimates for those days show 4.92GW and 6.38GW, respectively, differences.
Despite these differences, both models still show a general trend of high volatility of wind output in the country, with wind expected to rise and then decline periodically over 9-17 January.
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MNI:US OCT WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES -0.1%
- MNI:US OCT WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES -0.1%
SECURITY: Sullivan To Travel To Israel For Gaza Ceasefire Talks This Week
US President Joe Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, will travel to Israel this week for talks on a Gaza ceasefire-for-hostage deal. The White House notes that Sullivan will also discuss developments in Syria, Lebanon, and Iran.
- The trip comes amid increased optimism that a Gaza ceasefire deal can be struck before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, as noted in previous bullet: ISRAEL: Reports-Names Exchanged In Possible Sign Of Progress On Gaza Ceasefire
- Sullivan said at the 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum yesterday, when asked if he was hopeful of reaching a deal in Gaza: "I have now learned not to use the word “hopeful” and “Middle East” in the same sentence. So, I will not do that. There are ongoing talks. We are going to use every day we have an office to try to get a [deal] in place."
- On Syria, Sullivan noted that the Biden administration would take steps to prevent, "the resurgence of ISIS," including "dozens of airstrikes, striking more than 75 ISIS targets," per CNN.
- Trump noted on the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria: “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
- Trump's position may clash with senior Republican foreign policy hawks. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-TX) said: “It is vital the international community continue working to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS and other terrorist organizations,”
GILTS: Off Lows, Ranges Remain Tight
Gilts rally alongside Bunds over the last 90 minutes or so, although ranges remain contained in the grander scheme of things and bonds have faded from recovery highs.
- Futures peak at 96.13 so far, unable to challenge initial resistance at 96.18, last 96.03.
- Short-term bullish technicals intact.
- Yields now 2-3bp lower across the curve, bull steepening.
- 10s back below 4.25%, after basing at 4.190% last week.
- 10s a little over 2bp tighter on the day vs. Bunds, last 214.5bp. Multi-week range in the spread intact.
- Nothing to really move the needle from BoE’s Ramsden, who underscored his desire for gradual and predictable QT.
- He also pointed to “very orderly” gilt market action following the budget.
