RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison
See the latest German wind output forecast for base-load hours from SpotRenewables vs Bloomberg’s ECMWF model for the next seven days as of Thursday afternoon.
- Both models have similar wind forecasts for this week and the start of next week.
- The largest deviation is seen mid-and end-next week with Bloomberg’s ECMWF model suggesting German wind output will peak on Wednesday next week at 13.9GW, while SpotRenewables model suggests output to peak on Thursday at 18.97GW.
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Q: How shall we translate/compare the impact of QT with policy rate changes? Is this linear/does this change with time?
A: It's not linear. It will become less and less strong as we move forward. In some sense, QT and rate cuts do not contradict each other because we have been in a restrictive territory. So the two instruments moved in the same direction. It will become interesting when the two instruments start to diverge.
Q: Will the policy rate still be restrictive if cut to 2.50% in March?
A: We live in a world of tremendous uncertainty. I cannot say whether we will be in restrictive territory or not in a months time.
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