RENEWABLES: German Wind Output Forecast Comparison

The Outright call is building up:

• SFRU5 96.25c, bought for 9.5 in 40k total (Screen and Pit).

• A quick extension higher in Tnotes helping push the USDJPY to session low, Yesterday's low in the latter is at 151.24, ahead the immediate support of 150.93.
• It is still a fairly limited move in Treasuries, a 5k buyer cumulative went through, and the price action doesn't seem to be Spread led, as the calendar spreads sees selling interest.
• Resistance in TYH5 moves down to 109.01.

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index rose by 6.3% in the week ending Feb 15, accelerating from 5.3% prior and bringing February month-to-date sales up 5.8% Y/Y. 

• While the latter was below retailers' target of a 6.3% Y/Y rise, this is a significantly more buoyant appraisal of recent consumer activity compared with the January Census Bureau Retail Sales which saw a surprising 0.9% M/M drop (vs -0.2% consensus).
• Though as we pointed out at the time, there may have been some seasonal adjustment issues among other idiosyncratic factors at play in that sequential Retail Sales drop, with sales rising 4.2% on a Y/Y basis in January (not far off the 4.5% Y/Y increase posted by the Redbook index in January - and this has subsequently rebounded).
• Johnson Redbook sales growth has routinely exceeded that of Y/Y Census Bureau Retail Sales since mid-2024, but even accounting for that differential points to "official" retail sales somewhere in the 3-4% Y/Y area in February so far.
• A reminder of the Johnson Redbook Index's methodology: "a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales are sales in stores continuously open for 12 months or longer. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent 'official' retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce."