GERMANY: 'Germany' Coalition Seen As More Likely Than 'Kenya' By Bettors
Feb-19 15:04
Political betting markets continue to show a 'grand coalition' between the centre-right Christian De...
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STIR: A Little Over 60bp Of BoE Cuts Priced For '25, Tariff Headlines Dominate
Jan-20 15:03
GBP STIRs away from hawkish session extremes on the headlines playing down the likelihood of imminent tariffs from the Trump administration.
- That leaves 61.5bp of BoE cuts priced through year-end vs. ~64bp early today and ~59bp at one stage this afternoon.
- A reminder that ~36bp of cuts were briefly priced through year-end late last Tuesday.
- The next 25bp cut is still fully discounted through the end of the March MPC meeting, with ~21.5bp priced for next month.
- SONIA futures last flat to -3.0.
- UK labour market data is due first thing tomorrow (07:00 London), expect our full preview of that release shortly.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.485 | -21.5 |
Mar-25 | 4.440 | -26.0 |
May-25 | 4.310 | -39.0 |
Jun-25 | 4.260 | -44.0 |
Aug-25 | 4.175 | -52.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.151 | -54.9 |
Nov-25 | 4.102 | -59.8 |
Dec-25 | 4.086 | -61.4 |
EQUITIES: Large Estoxx outright call buyer
Jan-20 15:02
SX5E (21st Mar) 5600c, bought for 8 in 19k vs 1.33k at 5190.00.
EQUITIES: Large Commerzbank Call option trade
Jan-20 15:01
CBK (20th Jun) 18c, bought for 1.51 in 12.5k.
