NATGAS: Germany Gives Up Plan for Major Gas Plant Expansion

Dec-11 18:17

Germany has dropped plans for a major expansion of gas-fired power plants because of an absence of political support, the Economy Ministry said, cited by Bloomberg.

  • A final draft law on the expansion plans, that had been negotiated with the EU Commission, could not be voted on in parliament after the governing coalition collapsed.
  • Germany wanted to build gas-fired power stations to help phase out coal by 2030, eight years ahead of a legal cut-off date.
  • Germany had planned to auction 5 gigawatts of new units in early 2025 and another 5 gigawatts as part of a new capacity mechanism, expected to be ready in 2028.

Historical bullets

FOREX: Greenback Rally Extends, EURUSD Approaches Yearly Lows

Nov-11 18:07
  • Renewed demand for ‘Trump trades’ on Friday extended into this week, providing further strength for the greenback during Monday’s session. The Euro has continued to show relative underperformance across G10 in the aftermath of the US election, largely owing to Eurozone growth concerns and an escalating political crisis in Germany.
  • Bearish technical conditions dominate for EURUSD, and spot has notably extended below 1.0666 on Monday, a key support for the pair. Lows of 1.0629 were traded today and this narrows the gap to 1.0611, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull cycle, just ahead of the year’s lows at 1.0601, printed back in April.
  • For EURGBP, weakness has extended today, and the cross now cleared the bear trigger at 0.8295, the Oct 18 low. An initial target includes 0.8250, the Apr 14 ’22 low and below here another major support resides at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low.
  • The Japanese yen is the weakest performer today, with USDJPY rising 0.8% to 153.87, although we remain well off the post-election highs of 154.71. In contrast, USDCHF (+0.53%) has extended its short-term rally and printed above 0.8800 for the first time since late July.
  • In emerging markets, the likes of MXN, HUF and PLN all came under substantial pressure, declining the best part of 1.5% against the dollar. In particular the South African Rand fell 2% to a two-month low.
  • UK labour market data highlights on Tuesday, alongside German ZEW sentiment figures. Short-term focus will be on US CPI, scheduled on Wednesday.

EURUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low

Nov-11 18:00
  • RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4    
  • RES 3: 1.0997 High Oct 8   
  • RES 2: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance 
  • RES 1: 1.0761/0850 Low Oct 23 / 20-day EMA   
  • PRICE: 1.0648 @ 16:02 GMT Nov 11
  • SUP 1: 1.0629 Low Nov 11
  • SUP 2: 1.0611 38.2% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull cycle
  • SUP 3: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 2023 
  • SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 2023    

A sharp sell-off on Nov 6 in EURUSD highlighted a resumption of the current downtrend. The move down resulted in a reversal of the recent Oct 23 - Nov 5 correction and a breach of 1.0761, the Oct 23 low. Today’s fresh cycle low reinforces the bearish theme and sights are on 1.0611, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0937, the Nov 5 and 6 high. A break would highlight a potential reversal.     

LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speak Resumes; Fed SLOOS Lending Survey

Nov-11 17:55
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate) 
  • Nov-12 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (91.5, 92.0)
  • Nov-12 1000 Fed Gov Waller moderated discussion bank conf
  • Nov-12 1015 Richmond Fed Barkin summit discussion (text, Q&A)
  • Nov-12 1100 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations (3.0%, --)
  • Nov-12 1130 US Tsy $81B 13W, $72B 26W bill auctions
  • Nov-12 1300 US Tsy $80B 42D CMB auction
  • Nov-12 1400 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS)
  • Nov-12 1400 MN Fed Kashkari moderated discussion (no text, media Q&A)
  • Nov-12 1700 Philly Fed Harker on Fintech & AI (text, Q&A)
  • Nov-12 1730 Richmond Fed Barkin speech (text, Q&A)