EMISSIONS: Germany’s Policy Shift Could Raise EUAs Demand

• RES 4: 113-02   2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• RES 3: 112-13   1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 2: 112-01/02 High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing
• RES 1: 111-25   High Mar 11  
• PRICE:‌‌ 110-20+ @ 10:27 GMT Mar 18 
• SUP 1: 110-14+ 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 110-12+/00 Low Mar 6 & 13 / High Feb 7 and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 109-13+ Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: 108-21   Low Feb 19 

The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged, a bull cycle remains in play and the current consolidation marks a pause in the uptrend. A bull theme is reinforced by MA studies that are in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Recent gains have resulted in a print above 111-22+, the Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear breach of this level would open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projections. Firm support is 110-00, the Feb 7 high.

Bonds tick away from lows and equities edge away from highs in recent trade.

• The downtick in equities started a little before the disappointing ZEW current situation reading (which was accompanied by a slightly larger-than-expected jump in the expectations component, driven by the German fiscal sea change).
• A continued rally in oil limits the recovery.
• BBG source reports/headlines surrounding Russian demands re: a Ukrainian ceasefire aren’t particularly surprising/market moving.

RXJ5 127/126.5/125.5p fly 1x2x0.5, bought for -1 in 4k.