EMERGING MARKETS: Global News: February 13
Feb-13 11:27
- UKRAINE (MIN) – NATO defence ministers are meeting in Brussels as they grapple with a day that may represent the most significant shift in European geopolitics since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022. US President Donald Trump has said that the first stages of negotiations to end the conflict would begin at the Munich Security Conference on 14 Feb.
- ISRAEL (MNI) – Hamas has confirmed in a statement that it intends to continue with the process of releasing Israeli hostages according to the schedule set out in the phase one ceasefire agreement with Israel. This would see a further three hostages freed on Saturday 15 Feb.
- UK (RTRS) – The Bank of England needs to move cautiously with cutting interest rates because the long process of wrestling down inflation is not yet complete, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill told Reuters. Pill said the big picture was one of inflation falling towards the BoE's 2% target. However, underlying price pressures remain, he' said.
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CHF: USDCHF Off Session Lows, Danske Comment on Positioning
Jan-14 11:26
USDCHF extended yesterday's late selloff this morning, printing a 0.9129 low following headlines suggesting a more gradual tariff introduction under the new US administration. However, the pair has since pared the majority of its session losses, suggesting that bullish trend indicators remain intact for the pair.
- Cycle highs were reached yesterday at 0.9201, and further upside momentum would place focus on 0.9224/44, the key medium-term targets for the pair. Support moves up to 0.9061, the 20-day EMA.
- Danske see "aggregate USD positioning still in stretched long territory", while CHF positioning moved further towards stretched short as of data up until January 7. While this may indicate potential for a deeper short-term correction, it underlines that market bets continue to look for further upside potential in the pair.
- The local data calendar remains light, placing the focus on US inflation data and Fed speakers this week for USDCHF sentiment.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: PPI, Fed Speak, Tsy CMB Auction
Jan-14 11:26
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 14-Jan 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism reported 105.1 vs. 101.7 prior
- 14-Jan 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (0.4%, 0.4%), YoY (3.0%, 3.5%)
- 14-Jan 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.4%, 3.8%)
- 14-Jan 0830 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM (0.1%, 0.3%), YoY (3.5%, --)
- 14-Jan 1000 KC Fed Schmid (text TBA, Q&A)
- 14-Jan 1130 US Tsy $85B 42D CMB auction
- 14-Jan 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$366.8B, -$80.0B)
- 14-Jan 1500 NY Fed Williams open remarks (text, no Q&A)
EQUITIES: European Equities are performing well
Jan-14 11:21
- The Estoxx futures is extending further gains, the US lags, and the Tech sector in Europe leads, in second place behind Auto&Parts.
- The Tech sector (SX8P) is up 1.3% and next resistance will be at last Friday's high of 838.50.
- As noted on the European Cash Govie open, and while this is not a Tech level, the Estoxx (VGH5) still needs a pullback up to 5040.00, now at 5025.00 to reverse Friday's post US Data sell off.
