GOLD: Gold Competes with USD as Tariff Trade Favourite.
* Gold bounced back from Monday's decline to post a strong day on Tuesday. * Gold had suffered at th...
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US TSYS: Futures Re-Open Slightly Weaker After Friday’s Heavy Close
TYH5 is 108-13, -0-01 from NY closing levels.
- Tsy 10-year futures finished Friday weaker and near the session’s worst levels. However, light holiday volumes persisted with the Mar'25 10Y contract dealing in a 10-tic range.
- The US tsy 10Y yield climbed to 4.625% (+4bps) - the highest since late May'24.
- US tsy curves forged steeper as the short end outperformed on Friday: 2s10s +4.274 at 29.303, 5s30s +1.979 at 35.496.
- Short-end bid helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain slightly vs. Friday morning levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.7bp, Mar'25 -13.3bp (-13.1bp), May'25 -18.5bp (-17.7bp), Jun'25 -26.5bp (-25.7bp).
- Tsy futures had pared losses early on Friday after Wholesale Inventories came out lower than expected w/ modest down-revision to prior. Retail Inventories in-line with expectations while the Advanced Goods Trade Balance came out a little wider than October's, with the $102.9B shortfall above $98.3B prior (and $101.2B expected).
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (H5) Recovers Off Soft Close
- RES 3: 96.975 - High Mar 14
- RES 2: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 95.580 @ 15:31 GMT Dec 27
- SUP 1: 95.460 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 94.734 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures recovered well having slipped into the Monday close, undermining early December strength. This works against the previous short-term bull cycle. A continuation higher would refocus attention on resistance at the 96.207 level, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a stronger bearish reversal would instead expose 95.275.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H5) Reversal Takes Hold
- RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
- RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 96.170 @ 15:30 GMT Dec 27
- SUP 1: 96.000 - Low 19 Dec ‘24
- SUP 2: 95.750 - Low 27 Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures are recovering well off the post-Fed decision dip. Any further stabilisation and move higher would reinstate a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension. The key resistance here is at 96.730, the Sep 17 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 95.760 where a break would instead highlight a stronger bearish set-up.
