COMMODITIES: Gold Extends Gains, Copper Outlook Remains Bullish, WTI Falls
- Gold rose to a fresh record high earlier in Wednesday’s session before paring gains, with the yellow metal currently up by 0.9% at $2,868/oz.
- Earlier in the session, gold reached a high of $2,882 on the back of a further pullback in the US dollar and continued haven demand amid ongoing geopolitical and tariff uncertainty.
- With a bull cycle in gold still in play, sights are on $2,889.9 next, a Fibonacci projection, followed by round number resistance at the $2,900 level.
- Meanwhile, copper has also rallied by 2.3% today to $445/lb, taking the red metal to its highest level since Jan 17.
- Copper remains in a bull cycle, with gains this week taking it through $433.50, the Dec 12 high. The break of this level highlights a reversal and opens $452.85, the Nov 5 ‘24 high and a key resistance.
- Next resistance above here is $469.30, the Oct 3 high.
- Crude has extended earlier losses following a large US crude stocks build and with pressure from signs of increasing global trade friction.
- WTI Mar 25 is down by 2.2% at $71.1/bbl.
- According to the EIA weekly US petroleum summary, crude stocks rose by 8,664mn w/w vs. an expected +1,034mn
- WTI futures have pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.27, a clear break of which would open $68.05, the Dec 20 low.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H5) Support Remains Intact For Now
- RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
- RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
- RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
- PRICE: 96.080@ 19:29 GMT Jan 06
- SUP 1: 96.000 - Low 19 Dec ‘24
- SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
- SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support
Aussie 3-yr futures are trading below their most recent highs. The dominant trend for now remains bullish and a move higher would highlight a resumption of this condition, and signal scope for an extension towards 96.36, the Dec 11 high. Further out, the key resistance is at 96.730, the Sep 17 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.
US: Trump Set To Return To Office w/Highest Approval Rating Of Political Career
US President-elect Donald Trump is set to return to the White House on January 20 with the highest approval rating of his political career. His favorability rating turned positive in late December for the first time since RealClearPolitics started polling his approval in 2015.
- Trump's rising approval will buoy Republican optimism that a second Trump administration is better placed to legislate a complex Republican agenda, which includes an overhaul of immigration and policy, the extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts, and a sweeping tariff agenda.
- MNI Political Risk Team outlined Trump's tentative plans to pursue a single ‘mega-bill’ to cover the bulk of his legislative agenda in today's edition of the MNI US Daily Brief.
Figure 1: Trump Favourability Rating, 2015-Present
Source: RealClearPolitics
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 158.08 High Dec 26
- PRICE: 157.53 @ 19:31 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 155.89 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 153.85 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 152.46 Low Dec 13
USDJPY continues to trade below its recent high but is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. The trend outlook remains bullish. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for a move towards 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 155.89, the 20-day EMA.
