GOLD: Gold Rally Slows, Bullish Trend Remains.

USD/JPY's pull back got as far as 153.72 on Monday. We track near 154.45/50 in early Tuesday dealings, after yen rose nearly 1% for Monday's session, comfortably the best G10 FX performer. Equity risk off, led by US tech plays, amid fresh AI competition from China, saw yen and the Swiss franc outperform in the G10 FX space. 

• For USD/JPY technicals, the pair closed Monday trade below its 50-day EMA, which intersects today at 155.15. This would represent the first close below this average since December 09 and is a meaningful bearish development technically. This paves the way for an extension towards 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point, and 151.81, the Dec 12 low.
• The Nasdaq lost just over 3%, the SPX down close to 1.5%. The US VIX index spiked to 22.51%, but finished up under 18%. US yields plunged amid the flight to safety, off around 7-9bps across the Tsy curve.
• Focus today will remain tech related equity fallout, although a number of Asian markets, including China, are closed for LNY celebrations.
• Locally on the data calendar today we have the Dec PPI services print. The market expects a 3.2%y/y outcome (prior was 3.0%). Later on, machine tool orders come out. 

A reminder that some Asian markets are closed for LNY. See below for more details. 

• China from today (28of Jan) until neat Wednesday (the 5th of February).
• South Korea (27th of Jan to 30th), returning this Friday
• Taiwan (27th of Jan to 31st), returning Feb 3, next Monday
• Hong Kong (29th of Jan to 31st), returning Monday Feb 3.
• Singapore (29-30th of Jan), returning Friday 31st of Jan.
• Malaysia (29-30th of Jan), returning Friday 31st of Jan.
• Indonesia (27-29th of Jan) returning Thursday 30th of Jan.
• Philippines (just out 29th Of Jan). 

In local morning trade, NZGBs are 6bps richer after US tsys yields held gains seen in yesterday’s Asian session. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek shook the broader market. 

• New competition for US AI developers weighed heavily on chip stocks, the tech-heavy Nasdaq falling over 3% and Nvidia down 15%, spurring heavy outright buying and short covering across the board in US tsys.
• US tsys finished 7-9bps richer, with the belly outperforming.
• The focus remains on Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement, no move expected, as well as a heavy slate of US corporate earnings Tuesday: PACCAR, Sysco Corp, Synchrony Financial, Lockheed Martin Corp, Veradigm, Royal Caribbean, Polaris Inc., Boeing, NextEra Energy, JetBlue Airways, General Motors, Kimberly-Clark Corp, Invesco, Starbucks, Qorvo and Stryker Corp.
• NZ-filled jobs rose 0.1% m/m in December versus a revised +0.2% in November.
• Swap rates are 5-6bps lower.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-6bps softer across meetings with August leading. 48bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 113bps by November 2025.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 1.50% May-31 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$100mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.