COMMODITIES: Gold Rises To Fresh Record High, Crude Gains
Apr-16 18:07
- Gold has rallied sharply today, notching up gains of around $100/oz as it has continued to benefit from strong haven demand and US dollar weakness amid the tariff uncertainties.
- The yellow metal is currently up by 3.1% at $3,331/oz with this latest extension putting prices back into technically oversold territory on the 14-day RSI – although that's been no barrier to the persistent rally in precious metals in recent weeks.
- Today’s gains in gold reinforce the current bullish technical picture, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The next objective is $3,347.67, a 1.382 projection of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 -Feb 28 swing.
- Copper has also rallied further, buoyed by reports that China may be open to talks with the US. The red metal has risen by 1.0% to $473/lb, taking total gains since last week’s low to almost 16%.
- From a technical perspective, copper futures remain in a bear-mode cycle and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. However, price has pierced firm resistance at $471.63, the 50-day EMA, a clear break of which would open $490.27, a Fibonacci projection.
- Meanwhile, crude markets have been supported by the potential signs of easing US-China trade tensions, as well as further US sanctions on entities involved in Iran’s oil trade, including another Chinese teapot refiner.
- WTI May 25 is up by 1.6% at $62.3/bbl.
- For WTI futures, initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $4B BMW 6Pt, $2B Santander 3Pt Launched
Mar-17 18:07
$11B corporate bonds to price Monday
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 03/17 $4B #BMW US Capital $650M 2Y +65, $650M 2Y SOFR+78, $750M 3Y +75, $700M 3Y SOFR+92, $750M 5Y +97, $500M 10Y +115
- 03/17 $2B #Santander $850M 4NC3 +145, $400M 4NC3 SOFR+161, $750M 6NC5 +165
- 03/17 $1.8B #Oncor $500M 2Y +45, $650M 10Y +105, $650M 30Y +120
- 03/17 $1.2B #Republic Services $500M 5Y +73, $700M 10Y +93
- 03/17 $1B #Hyatt $500M 3Y +105, $500M 7Y +155
- 03/17 $1B #Public Service Co of Colorado $400M 10Y +108, $600M 30Y +125
EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact
Mar-17 18:00
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0947 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 1.0920 @ 16:26 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0674 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0557 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
Trend conditions in EURUSD remain bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the current uptrend. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0557, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
OPTIONS: Multiple Large May Bund Structures Feature
Mar-17 17:52
Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- RXK5 129/130.5/132/133.5 call condor paper paid 0.335/0.345 on 20K.
- RXK5 127/126 ps, bought for 33.5 in 10k.
- RXK5 130c, bought for 49.5 in ~5.6k.
- RXK5 126.50/125.50ps, bought for 33 in 7.75k.
- ERJ5 97.875/98.00 call spread paper paid 2 on 10k
- ERK5 97.62/97.50ps 1x2, bought for 1 in 15k.
- ERM5 97.62/97.50ps bought for 1.75 in 16.5k.
