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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Trading Below Recent High
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg.
- RES 2: 109-31 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 109-10/15+ 50-day EMA / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 108-25+ @ 12:20 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 108-24/21+ 20-day EMA / Low Feb 3
- SUP 2: 108-06/107-06 Low Jan 23 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
Treasury futures continue to trade below their recent highs. A corrective cycle remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Key resistance at 109-10, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish. The bear trigger is 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support is 108-06, the Jan 23 low.
STIR: Mix Of Positioning Swings In SOFR Futures On Monday
Short setting dominated in SFRH5-U5 on Monday, before a mix of net long cover (most contracts between SFRZ5-Z6) and net short cover (SFRH7 through SFRM8) then came to the fore further out the strip.
- Tariff headlines resulted in twist flattening of the SOFR futures strip come settlement time.
| 03-Feb-25 | 31-Jan-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ4 | 1,082,060 | 1,089,556 | -7,496 | Whites | +18,110 |
SFRH5 | 1,216,183 | 1,213,351 | +2,832 | Reds | -23,395 |
SFRM5 | 1,093,294 | 1,071,741 | +21,553 | Greens | -47,809 |
SFRU5 | 775,631 | 774,410 | +1,221 | Blues | -12,399 |
SFRZ5 | 943,764 | 957,524 | -13,760 |
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SFRH6 | 671,255 | 682,072 | -10,817 |
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SFRM6 | 640,640 | 635,578 | +5,062 |
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SFRU6 | 590,528 | 594,408 | -3,880 |
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SFRZ6 | 666,655 | 692,356 | -25,701 |
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SFRH7 | 472,402 | 484,831 | -12,429 |
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SFRM7 | 406,431 | 412,852 | -6,421 |
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SFRU7 | 287,142 | 290,400 | -3,258 |
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SFRZ7 | 267,479 | 275,858 | -8,379 |
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SFRH8 | 216,892 | 218,970 | -2,078 |
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SFRM8 | 179,036 | 180,985 | -1,949 |
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SFRU8 | 120,107 | 120,100 | +7 |
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Feb05 $1.0300-05(E1.2bln) $1.0500(E1.4bln); Feb06 $1.0250(E1.5bln), $1.0315-25(E2.2bln), $1.0400(E1.0bln)
- USD/JPY: Feb05 Y153.15-25($2.0bln); Feb06 Y153.90($1.4bln)
- GBP/USD: Feb06 $1.2455(Gbp1.2bln)
- EUR/GBP: Feb06 Gbp0.8465(E1.1bln)
