EUROPEAN INFLATION: Goods and Energy Drove Softer-than-expected French CPI
Looking at the drivers of the national French March flash CPI (non-HICP) surprise (0.80% Y/Y vs 0.9%...
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread seller
ERM5 97.62/97.75cs sold at 9.75 in 6.25k.
STIR: Euribor Futures Slightly Softer On Overnight US Budget Developments
Euribor futures are flat to -1.5 ticks through the blues, softening alongside Bunds after the US house passed an expansionary budget blueprint overnight.
- ECB-dated OIS price 82bps of easing through year-end, 1bp more hawkish than yesterday’s close.
- Yesterday evening, ECB’s Stournaras told Politico that rates are “definitely still in restrictive territory”, and will likely reach a terminal of 2% by autumn.
- While in line with his prior comments, Stournaras’ stance is slightly more cautious than the likes of Villeroy and Centeno, who favour a move towards 2% by Summer.
- Today’s regional calendar is relatively light, with focus on the February flash inflation round, which begins with Spain tomorrow. MNI’s inflation preview will be released later today.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.422 | -24.5 |
| Apr-25 | 2.257 | -40.9 |
| Jun-25 | 2.074 | -59.2 |
| Jul-25 | 2.008 | -65.8 |
| Sep-25 | 1.921 | -74.5 |
| Oct-25 | 1.895 | -77.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.848 | -81.8 |
| Feb-26 | 1.842 | -82.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
USDCAD TECHS: Correction Extends
- RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 1.4323 @ 08:08 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD is trading higher again, today as a correction that started Feb 14 extends. Resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A move above this hurdle would highlight an early reversal signal. On the downside, the short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. A move through this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and pave the way for an extension towards 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement.
