THAILAND: Gov't Whip Calls On Bhumjaithai To Settle Internal Rift On Casino Bill

There are suggestions that the political parties will conduct test votes to gauge support for the fiscal reform ahead of today’s Bundestag gathering. The straw polls/test votes are seemingly scheduled for 09:00 CET/08:00 GMT and could generate headlines.

• The Bundestag session will get underway at 10:00 CET/09:00 GMT, with the debate surrounding the amendments to the relevant fiscal laws scheduled to start at 10:35 CET/09:35 GMT.
• A roll call-vote will then follow the debate (some have suggested this could start around 13:30 CET/12:30 GMT), with the session scheduled to conclude at 15:05 CET/14:05 GMT.
• Chancellor-in-waiting Merz has stated that only a small handful of no votes will come from the CDU-CSU, while dissenters and absentees from the Greens & SPD are expected to be in the low single digits.
• A reminder that the 3 parties have a buffer of 31 votes when it comes to passing the package.
• While odds of a rejection of the amendments are not 0, base cases and market pricing continue to lean heavily towards the reform passing through the Bundestag.
• It then needs to pass through the Bundesrat before the new government sits on 25 March.

• The Dollar was trading mostly in the Green against G10 during the European Overnight session, but since the EU Cash Govie open, the Greenback has given back some of its gains, and overall is pretty much flat against all G10s, besides the Yen.
• The Yen is seeing another volatile session overnight and has extended losses across the board, to trade in the red against all the Majors, Rand leads, up 0.53% in early trade.
• Within G10s, the Kiwi and the Dollar lead, up 0.44% and 0.36% respectively, albeit off their best levels at the Time of Typing.
• Some overnight desks have mentioned possible Positioning ahead of the BoJ decision Tomorrow, when the Central Bank is widely expected to keep its Rate unchanged at 0.50%.
• Next resistance in USDJPY comes at 150.18 High Mar 5.

Statistics Norway project a slower pace of Norges Bank rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 compared to its last forecast round in December. The agency now expects two rate cuts in 2025 and three in 2026, compared to five 2025 cuts in the December round. It does not provide an explicit view on next Thursday’s decision.

• Mainland GDP growth is expected at 1.2% in 2025, six tenths below December projection. This is below Norges Bank’s 1.4% December MPR projection (which will in any case be revised in next Thursday’s March MPR).
• “High income growth and lower interest rates will stimulate household consumption. Meanwhile, the fiscal space will facilitate continued growth in public consumption and investment”. Stats Norway notes that “a large part of the increase in public investment is due to the focus on defence”.
• CPI-ATE inflation is expected at 3.1% in 2025, above the 2.8% projection in December, following higher-than-expected spot readings to begin the year.
• Real wage growth is again expected to be positive: “Strong profitability in the manufacturing sector suggests that real wage growth will remain high this year, likely around 1.5 per cent”.
• Stats Norway assumes that trade restrictions deriving from the Trump administration will persist through 2028, but the impact on Norwegian growth remains uncertain.