FOREX: Greenback Consolidates Early Decline, CHF & SEK Outperform

Ahead of tomorrow's special session in the Bundestag - within which we expect a vote on the major fiscal package - Handelsblatt write of last minute nerves among some lawmakers, and still lingering uncertainties around the event:

• One piece: "behind-the-scenes rumors say there are still serious concerns, especially among the CDU's policymakers, about loosening the debt brake for defense and establishing a special fund of half a trillion euros."
• And via their live blog: "there are likely to be several dissenters among the Green Party's ranks. According to participants, a test vote in the Green Party's parliamentary group resulted in one abstention and one undecided vote. A small single-digit number of members of parliament were sick."

• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow for real GDP growth in Q1 was revised up to -2.1% from -2.4% in its Mar 6 update, although it marked a downgrade from the -1.6% tracked inter-released after the payrolls report of Mar 7 (as noted in the LinkedIn post from Atlanta Fed’s Higgins mentioned earlier).
• Today’s retail sales report, which as we noted showed signs of weak discretionary spending, has offset the inter-release upside seen post-payrolls for consumer spending.  Compared to the -2.4% in the last 'full' release, the upward revision has come from a larger positive contributino from non-resi investment growth and changes in inventories.
• The LinkedIn post had also showed a gold-adjusted figure of +0.4% vs the -1.6% in that inter-release update. However: “Due to FOMC blackout policy, today’s post does not include an update of the version of the model described here that adjusts the standard GDPNow model forecast for foreign trade in gold. That adjusted model will again be updated after our first scheduled post-blackout update on March 26.”

• Major U.S. stock indexes are trading mixed, the SPX Eminis near steady while the DJIA outperforms modestly weaker Nasdaq at midday. Currently, the DJIA trades up 188.34 points (0.45%) at 41678.97, S&P E-Minis up 6.75 points (0.12%) at 5699.5, Nasdaq down 81.7 points (-0.5%) at 17673.26.
• Energy and Real Estate sectors outperformed in the first half, oil and gas stocks leading gainers as crude prices rebounded (WTI +.41 at 67.59): Marathon Petroleum +2.61%, Targa Resources +2.45%, APA +2.37% and Valero Energy +2.13%.
• Investment trusts and management shares buoyed the Real Estate sector: BXP Inc +5.24%, Simon Property Group +2.55% and Iron Mountain +2.02%.
• On the flipside, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors underperformed in the first half, Tesla -6.44%, Ulta Beauty -2.25%, Garmin Ltd -1.85% and Deckers Outdoor -1.60% led laggers in the Discretionary sector.
• Despite strong gains by Intel +7.88% and Enphase +6.47%, the Tech sector underperformed as a whole with Super Micro Computer-1.92%, NVIDIA -1.71%, Broadcom -1.52% and Apple -1.36%.