US: Greenback Gains, Equities Slip on Trump Reciprocal Tariff Post

OI points to a mix of net short setting (TU, UXY, US & WN) and long cover (FV & TY) during yesterday’s move lower in Tsy futures.

• Net short setting in WN futures accounted for all of the net DV01 equivalent positioning movement on the curve, as the net swings in the remaining contracts offset.

• On the commodity front, recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2642.9, the 50-day EMA.
• In the oil space, the trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the contract traded higher again, Monday. The stronger reversal to the upside has resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $72.69. This average is seen as a key short-term support.

SFIZ5 96.35/97.00cs x3 vs 95.60p x1, bought the cs for -2 (receive) in 4.4k.