STIR: Green/Blue Euribor Futures Almost 50 Ticks Off Monday's Settlement
Euribor futures are once again being dragged lower by Bunds, as the bearish reaction to Monday night’s German fiscal announcement continues to set the tone in rates markets.
- Euribor futures are -0.5 to -11.5 ticks through the blues, with the strip bear steepening again. Green/Blue pack futures are almost 50 ticks below Monday’s settlement levels at typing. ERH7 has breached the Jan 14 low of 97.5850 this morning.
- ECB-dated OIS price 63bps of easing through year-end, down from 84bps at Monday’s close.
- The ECB remain unanimously expected to cut rates by 25bps at today’s gathering, but recent market volatility will undoubtedly be a point of interest at President Lagarde’s press conference (alongside familiar US tariff discussions).
- For the decision itself, focus remains on any tweaks in policy statement wording around the restrictiveness of policy, alongside the revised macroeconomic projections. These inputs will help inform the near-term policy path, with OIS currently assigning a ~50% implied probability of another 25p cut in April.
- See more in our ECB preview here.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.422 | -24.3 |
| Apr-25 | 2.299 | -36.5 |
| Jun-25 | 2.149 | -51.5 |
| Jul-25 | 2.114 | -55.0 |
| Sep-25 | 2.054 | -61.0 |
| Oct-25 | 2.045 | -61.9 |
| Dec-25 | 2.036 | -62.8 |
| Feb-26 | 2.041 | -62.3 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4435 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 1.4398 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.4290 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
USDCAD traded sharply higher Monday, before reversing lower into the close. Despite the pullback, Monday’s gains reinforce and strengthen bullish conditions. The break higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and sets the scene for a climb towards 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 1.4398, the 20-day EMA (pierced).
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 92.70/92.74 range.
AUDUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6307/31 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
- RES 1: 0.6244 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6205 @ 07:55 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 0.6088 Low Feb 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low on Monday. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A continuation would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is at 0.6307, the 50-day EMA. Gains are - for now - considered corrective.
