SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bull Flag Price Pattern
- RES 4: 107.233 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.045 High Jan 3
- PRICE: 106.835 @ 06:00 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 106.795 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.600 Low Jan 31
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support
A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play. The contract has recently traded through a number of important resistance points and the latest impulsive gains highlight a stronger reversal. Furthermore, the recent pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. The focus is on 107.081, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 106.795, the 20-day EMA.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 14-Jan | 0830 | BOE's Breeden speech on Financial Stability | |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Consumer inflation report |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Producer Prices |
| 15-Jan | 1630 | BOE's Taylor Speech on Inflation Dynamics and Outlook | |
| 16-Jan | 0700 | Nov | GDP/ Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction |
| 17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Retail Sales |
| 21-Jan | 0700 | Nov/Dec | Labour Market Survey |
| 22-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 22-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Jan | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-Jan | 0001 | Jan | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30-Jan | 0930 | Dec | BOE M4/ Lending to Individuals |
| 03-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 05-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6
- RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 117.696 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 117.090 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 116.450 @ 06:01 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 116.410 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and last week’s extension, reinforces the bearish set-up. Price has recently traded through key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. The clear break strengthens the current downtrend and sights are on 116.320 next, the Jul 22 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.696, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 13-Jan | 315 | EU | ECB's Lane in policy dialogue at Asian Financial Forum |
| 14-Jan | 735 | EU | ECB's Lane speech on Europe, Asia and the Changing Globe |
| 14-Jan | 900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 15-Jan | 315 | EU | ECB's Lane in fireside chat at GS global macro conference |
| 15-Jan | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at 15th Spain Investors Day |
| 15-Jan | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 16-Jan | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16-Jan | 1230 | EU | Account of Dec 2024 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting |
| 17-Jan | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 17-Jan | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17-Jan | 1100 | EU | ECB's Cipollone lecture at Crypto Asset Lab conference |
