BTP TECHS: (H5) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance     
• RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12  
• RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 120.45/120.79 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 119.39 @ Close Jan 3 
• SUP 1: 119.11 Low Nov 18        
• SUP 2: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 118.51 Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: 117.40 Low Nov 7 and a key support      

The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and Friday’s extension lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.79, the 20-day EMA. 

• RES 4: 166.51 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6  
• RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 163.32 High Jan 2
• PRICE: 162.54 @ 07:05 GMT Jan 6 
• SUP 1: 160.91 Low Jan 2    
• SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11

EURJPY has pulled back from the Dec 30 high, however, the move down appears corrective - for now. A bullish short-term condition remains intact and the next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and the next major resistance.

• RES 4: 93.87 Low Dec 16  
• RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17  
• RES 2: 93.16 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 92.08 High Jan 2              
• PRICE: 92.23 @ Close Jan 3 
• SUP 1: 91.64 Low Dec 19 and the bear trigger                         
• SUP 2: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
• SUP 3: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
• SUP 4: 91.33 4.618 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial resistance is at 92.08, the Jan 2 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.16, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.