TTF NATGAS TECHS: (H5) Cements Break Below 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: €61.73 - 2.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 22 - Dec 16 swing
- RES 3: €60.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: €59.39 - High Feb 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: €54.56 - High Feb 13
- PRICE: €47.36 @ 14:32 GMT Feb 21
- SUP 1: €46.82 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 16 - Feb 11 bull cycle
- SUP 2: €43.32 - Low Jan 10
- SUP 3: €39.06 - Low Dec 16 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: €38.15 - Low Oct 31 ‘24
The pullback off the weekly highs in TTF Gas futures persists, with price action continuing to highlight a corrective phase. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention has been on pivot support at the 50-day EMA - at €49.14. The clear break below the 50-day EMA does undermine a bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger remains defined at €59.39, the Feb 11 high.
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EU-RUSSIA: Kallas Says "No Reason To Weaken Sanctions On Russia Now"
Kaja Kallas, the European Commission Vice President and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, told Reuters she sees “no reason to weaken sanctions on Russia now,” noting she believes the EU will “find agreement to renew” sanctions.
- Kallas endorsed recent comments from US President Donald Trump calling on NATO members to hike defence contributions, but pushed back on his claims that the US is bearing the brunt of Ukraine financing: “We are [Ukraine's] biggest international donor.”
- Kallas noted that the EU must work “to ensure it’s at the table” for eventual Ukraine peace talks. Trump’s advisors have recently dialled back expectations that negotiations could take place within the first 100 days of Trump’s second term.
- Trump’s Treasury Sec nominee Scott Bessent appeared to confirm last week that the Trump administration is weighing the possibility of ratcheting up sanctions on Russia to force Moscow to the negotiating table. Some reporting has also suggested that Trump could unwind sanctions on Russia’s energy sector if a deal appears close.
- Kallas said in a speech earlier today: "Russia poses an existential threat to our security today, tomorrow and for as long as we underinvest in our defence.”
- Kallas added: "Time is not on Russia's side. But it's not necessarily on ours either. Because we are not yet doing enough. There should be no doubt in any of our minds that we must spend more to prevent war. But we also need to prepare for war.”
EQUITIES: SPX edges towards the All Time Record High
- As expected the SPX has gapped higher on the open and worth seeing how prices are developing at these high levels, the all time record high stands at 6099.97.
- SPX trades at 6079.00, after printing a 6085.03 on the Open.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Breaches Resistance
RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6148.00 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 6114.75 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6116.00 @ 14:19 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 5961.75 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
S&P E-Minis are trading higher this week, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. Gains undermine a recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme. This would open 6178.75, the Dec 6 high and key resistance. Initial support to watch is 5961.75, the Jan 16 low.
