WTI TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: $83.40 - 76.4% retrace of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: $81.26 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $80.63 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 1: $79.48 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $72.62 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 30
- SUP 1: $72.23 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $68.05 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $66.55 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.80 - Low Oct 29 ‘24
This week’s move down in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention turns to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.23. A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would focus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.
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GOLD TECHS: Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 3: $2664.5 - High Dec 16
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2637.3/2692.8 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 13
- PRICE: $2607.7 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 31
- SUP 1: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. MA studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend and this suggests that the latest sell-off is likely a correction. Initial pivot resistance is $2637.3, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would be positive for bulls.
BONDS: Bonds are in the Green heading into Year End
- Europe is closed and the US and the UK will have an early close as we turn the page on 2024.
- US Tnotes (TYH5) continues to see a decent recovery in Futures, right on the June High in Yield of 4.6357%, tested on the 26th December with a 4.6393% high on that day.
- Further upside continuation in futures will see the next immediate resistance in Futures at 109.08+ (4.48% in Yield), but the lack of liquidity will likely keep the contract fairly subdued, given that it has only traded 50k lots overnight and into the European session.
- There's no notable data, nor speakers for the session
GILT TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.38/45 High Dec 18 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 92.46/93.09 High Dec 12 / 21
- PRICE: 92.12 @ Close Dec 30
- SUP 1: 91.64 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.33 4.618 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Monday’s gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.45, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.
