A bull cycle that began Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, and the pullback from the early February highs appears corrective - for now. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 107.045, the Feb 3 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the short-term uptrend. On the downside, a continuation lower would instead open 106.600 next, the Jan 31 low.
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EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross traded higher Tuesday. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has been cleared. Note too that 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8325.
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness, including fresh cycle lows this week, reinforce this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the bear leg and sights are on 106.375 next, the Oct 31 ‘24 low (cont). Firm resistance is seen at 106.835, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
Date | UK | Period | Event |
15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Consumer inflation report |
15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Producer Prices |
15-Jan | 1630 | BOE's Taylor Speech on Inflation Dynamics and Outlook | |
16-Jan | 0700 | Nov | GDP/ Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction |
17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Retail Sales |
21-Jan | 0700 | Nov/Dec | Labour Market Survey |
22-Jan | 0001 | Dec | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
22-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Public Sector Finances |
23-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Industrial Trends |
24-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
24-Jan | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global Flash PMI |
24-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Distributive Trades |
28-Jan | 0001 | Jan | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
30-Jan | 0930 | Dec | BOE M4/ Lending to Individuals |
03-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
05-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |