BUND TECHS: (H5) Has Cleared Trendline Support
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 2: 132.97 High Feb 13 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 132.59 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 131.67 @ 07:24 GMT Feb 21
- SUP 1: 131.26 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
Bund futures are trading lower again, as the contract extends the reversal that started Feb 5. Price is through an important short-term support at 132.12, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. The breach strengthens a bearish theme, particularly with the extension through 131.59 yesterday, a Fibonacci retracement. Below 131.59, lies 131.00, the Jan 25 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 132.97, the Feb 13 high.
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GOLD TECHS: Bullish Extension
- RES 4: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high
- RES 2: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 1: $2758.60 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $2750.1 @ 07:23 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: $2676.1/2653.4 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
Gold is trading higher this week. The yellow metal has breached resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2675.0, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.
BUNDS: Has closed the opening gap
- A very tight overnight range for Bund, and a calmer session going into the European Cash Open.
- Last night's report that Trump was weighing a 10% tariff on China Import had very little impact across most assets, besides the Dollar of course and the Yuan.
- The German Bund saw a small gap lower on the Overnight open, which has now been closed, this was at 131.95, and the contract printed a 131.96 high, and 10 ticks off that high now.
- Initial resistance was seen at 132.14 Yesterday, and the contract printed a 132.15 high, this remains.
- Above that area, it opens to 132.41, but better is seen at 132.57.
- The first support is still at 131.50 (Friday's and Monday's low).
- There's no Tier 1 data for the session, the main focus for this Week is still the PMIs Friday.
- SUPPLY: Germany 2041, 2044 (equates combined 10.15k Buxl) should have a limited impact. US Sells $13bn of 20yr reopening.
- SYNDICATION: Finland 20yr, Spain 10yr.
- SPEAKERS: Reeves, ECB Lagarde, Villeroy, Knot, Rehn, Nagel.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Corrective Bounce Extends
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 119.90 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.45 @ Close Jan 21
- SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
A medium-term bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and recent fresh cycle lows reinforce current conditions. However, from a short-term perspective, the latest rally highlights a corrective phase. Resistance to watch is 119.33, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.
