BTP TECHS: (H5) Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- PRICE: 119.26 @ 07:36 GMT Feb 20
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 4: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
A bullish cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Attention is on 120.98 (pierced) and 121.88, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the corrective bull cycle. First support lies at 119.20, the Jan 31 low.
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USD: A Volatile Overnight session in FX
- A Volatile session in FX overnight, with all the moves happening at 00.50GMT, on the back of the US President Trump headline regarding imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, potentially as early as the 1st February.
- Trump has now signed a number of Executive Overnight.
- As such there was no surprises in seeing the CAD and the MXN as some of the most volatile Currencies, although the likes of the YEN also saw a 112 pips rally in the USDJPY, after the yields initially spiked.
- The CAD is still the worst performer in G10 going into the European session, but has pared some losses, although the USDCAD still spiked to its highest level since March 2020 on the Tariffs headline.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6107.50 High Dec 26
- RES 1: 6078.25 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6037.25 @ 07:23 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: 5961.75 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
S&P E-Minis are trading higher, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of 6107.50 would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower and a breach of this level would reinstate a bear theme.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high
- RES 2: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 1: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- PRICE: $2727.5 @ 07:28 GMT Jan 21
- SUP 1: $2653.4 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
Gold is trading higher today. The yellow metal has pierced resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for an extension higher near-term. This would expose $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. On the downside, first support to watch is $2653.4, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.
