BTP TECHS: (H5) Pullback Appears Corrective
* RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 * RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12 * RES 2: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec...
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STIR: Just Under 65bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End, Reeves Due
GBP STIRs little changed to a touch more hawkish at the open, with core global FI markets below yesterday’s highs and Bund futures off their early London peak.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to 1bp more hawkish across ’25 contracts.
- SONIA futures flat to -1.5.
- UK Chancellor Reeves is currently speaking on BBG TV, nothing to move markets thus far, as she reemphasises the government’s strapline surrounding driving economic growth and the need to stick to the fiscal rules.
- She will speak to CEOs later in the day.
- PSNB was higher than expected in Dec.
- Little else of note on the UK calendar today.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.477 | -22.3 |
Mar-25 | 4.433 | -26.7 |
May-25 | 4.297 | -40.3 |
Jun-25 | 4.244 | -45.6 |
Aug-25 | 4.155 | -54.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.130 | -57.0 |
Nov-25 | 4.079 | -62.1 |
Dec-25 | 4.062 | -63.8 |
USD: Trades in the green against all G10s
- The Dollar is on the front foot going into the European session following report last night that Trump is looking to put a 10% Tariff on China's Imports, as such the Kiwi and the Aussie have been the worst performers in G10s, but overall it has been a very volatile two way price action in FX.
- The NZDUSD is trading in a wide 0.5597/0.5689 range just this Week, and sits nearer Yesterday's mid range of 0.5617/0.5681, at 0.5656 this Morning.
- The normally Volatile Yen has been more stable overnight, and while USDJPY edges towards the Overnight high, Yesterday's printed high stands at 156.58, so far 155.99 is Today's session high.
- Market Participants are focussed on the expected BoJ hike due on Friday.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Approaching Resistance
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6107.50 High Dec 26
- RES 1: 6105.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6100.00 @ 07:20 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 5961.75 Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 5879.50/5809.00 Low Jan 15 / 13 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
S&P E-Minis are trading higher this week, marking an extension of last week’s bull phase. Gains undermine a recent bearish theme. The contract has traded through the 50-day EMA and attention is on resistance at 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. Key support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower and a breach of this level would reinstate a bear theme.
