BOBL TECHS: (H5) Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 117.578/980 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 / 5
- PRICE: 117.310 @ 06:03 GMT Feb 13
- SUP 1: 117.190 Low Feb 12
- SUP 2: 116.952 Trendline drawn from Jan 15 low
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle despite this week’s pullback. However, the contract has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.412. A continuation lower would expose a trendline support, drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 116.952. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high. A breach of this level resumes the recent uptrend.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 14-Jan | 735 | EU | ECB's Lane speech on Europe, Asia and the Changing Globe |
| 14-Jan | 900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 15-Jan | 315 | EU | ECB's Lane in fireside chat at GS global macro conference |
| 15-Jan | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at 15th Spain Investors Day |
| 15-Jan | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 16-Jan | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16-Jan | 1230 | EU | Account of Dec 2024 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting |
| 17-Jan | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 17-Jan | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17-Jan | 1100 | EU | ECB's Cipollone lecture at Crypto Asset Lab conference |
| 20-Jan | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Jan | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 20-Jan | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting |
GBPUSD: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.2613 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 2: 1.2456/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 1.2205@ 06:08 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6
- RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 117.584 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 117.090 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 116.560 @ 05:48 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 116.350 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading just ahead of its recent low. Price has recently traded through key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. The clear break strengthens the current downtrend and sights are on 116.320 next, the Jul 22 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.584, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
