BOBL TECHS: (H5) Remains Above Trendline Support
- RES 4: 118.310 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 118.27 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 117.576/980 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 / 5
- PRICE: 117.560 @ 05:56 GMT Feb 14
- SUP 1: 117.190 Low Feb 12
- SUP 2: 116.984 Trendline drawn from Jan 15 low
- SUP 3: 116.550 Low Jan 24
- SUP 4: 116.280 Low Jan 14 / 15 and key support
Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.423. A continuation lower would expose a trendline support drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 116.984. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high. Clearance of it resumes the recent uptrend.
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 15-Jan | 315 | EU | ECB's Lane in fireside chat at GS global macro conference |
| 15-Jan | 745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jan | 800 | EU | ECB's De Guindos at 15th Spain Investors Day |
| 15-Jan | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
| 16-Jan | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jan | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16-Jan | 1230 | EU | Account of Dec 2024 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting |
| 17-Jan | 900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 17-Jan | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 17-Jan | 1100 | EU | ECB's Cipollone lecture at Crypto Asset Lab conference |
| 20-Jan | 700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Jan | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 20-Jan | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in Eurogroup meeting | |
| 21-Jan | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions/ Expectations Index |
| 21-Jan | EU | ECB's De Guindos in ECOFIN Meeting |
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6
- RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 117.469 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 116.700/117.090 High Jan 14 / 9
- PRICE: 116.360 @ 05:57 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 116.280 Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent low. Price has recently traded through key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. The clear break and subsequent follow through strengthens the downtrend and sights are on 116.210 next, the Jul 12 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.469, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0356 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.0297 @ 06:04 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high.
