Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 117.423. A continuation lower would expose a trendline support drawn from the Jan 15 low, at 116.984. Clearance of the trendline would strengthen a bearish threat. The bull trigger has been defined at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high. Clearance of it resumes the recent uptrend.
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16-Jan | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
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21-Jan | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Conditions/ Expectations Index |
21-Jan | EU | ECB's De Guindos in ECOFIN Meeting |
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact and the contract is trading at its recent low. Price has recently traded through key support at 117.180, the Nov 6 low. The clear break and subsequent follow through strengthens the downtrend and sights are on 116.210 next, the Jul 12 2024 low (cont). Key short-term resistance is 117.469, the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective and allow an oversold condition to unwind.
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high.