BTP TECHS: (H5) Resistance Holds Firm For Now
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 119.72 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 118.97 @ Close Jan 30
- SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
Recent gains in BTP futures continue to highlight a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.72, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition is bearish and the pullback from the Jan 22 high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.
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GILT TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.38/45 High Dec 18 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 92.46/93.09 High Dec 12 / 21
- PRICE: 92.12 @ Close Dec 30
- SUP 1: 91.64 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.33 4.618 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and Monday’s gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.45, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.
EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31
- RES 3: 166.31 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 1: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 163.08 @ 16:11 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 162.82 Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 162.31/159.82 20-day EMA / Low Dec 18
- SUP 3: 158.67 Low Dec 11
- SUP 4: 157.87 Low Dec 09
EURJPY has pulled back from Monday’s high, but a bullish short-term condition remains intact for now. Initial firm support lies at 162.31, the 20-day EMA. The cross has recently breached all the relevant Fibonacci retracement points of the bear leg between Oct 31 - Dec 3. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would open 166.69, the Oct 31 high and the next major resistance.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 120.70/121.03 High Dec 20 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.98 @ Close Dec 30
- SUP 1: 119.41 Low Dec 27
- SUP 2: 119.11 Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low Nov 8
A corrective cycle in BTP futures has resulted in a pullback from its recent highs and last Friday’s sell-off highlights and extension of the current bear cycle. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 121.03, the 20-day EMA.
