AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 3: 96.975 - High Mar 14 
• RES 2: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• PRICE: 95.565 @ 14:59 GMT Jan 3
• SUP 1: 95.460 - Low Dec 20
• SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 94.734 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures had a stable start to 2025, keeping the technical outlook unchanged for now. A previous bull cycle in prices has been hampered by S/T pullbacks late last year, however a continuation higher would refocus attention on resistance at the 96.207 level, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a stronger bearish reversal would instead expose 95.275. 

Oil prices rose around a percent on Friday to continue the uptrend seen during the week. Better risk appetite, continued US crude drawdowns and technicals seem to have outweighed pessimism over China’s economy. The USD index fell 0.1% driven by stronger US equities, which also supported dollar-denominated crude.

• WTI rose 1.3% to $74.07/bbl to be up almost 5% last week, above resistance at $73.73 opening up $73.96. The bull trigger is at $76.41. It reached a peak of $74.35, the highest since early October.
• Brent finished last week up almost 4% after a 1.0% rise on Friday to $76.69/bbl, breaching initial resistance at $76.55 opening $79.50, key resistance. It made an intraday high of $76.73.
• Goldman Sachs estimates that “oil prices are a few dollars undervalued” currently.
• The election of Trump as the next US President has increased expectations that US oil production will rise. However, before the end of his term President Biden is likely to ban new offshore oil and gas projects covering around 625mn acres of coast, according to Bloomberg. The area includes the Atlantic, Pacific and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The decision is likely to be announced today.

• RES 3: 96.380 - High Mar 21 2023
• RES 2: 97.190 - High May 5 2023 
• RES 1: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• PRICE: 96.160 @ 14:55 GMT Jan 03
• SUP 1: 96.000 - Low 19 Dec ‘24
• SUP 2: 95.750 - Low 27 Nov ‘23
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures have started the year broadly flat, keeping the near-term trend neutral. Any further stabilisation and move higher would reinstate a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension. The key resistance here is at 96.730, the Sep 17 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would refocus attention on 95.760 where a break would instead highlight a stronger bearish set-up.