AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (H5) Reverses Off First Resistance

ACGBs (YM -5.0 & XM -5.0) are modestly cheaper after an uneventful NY session for US tsys. 

• US tsys bear-steepened, with yields 1-4bps higher.
• Fed Chairman Powell repeated his January FOMC press conference at his Senate Banking Committee testimony yesterday.
• Focus on key CPI inflation data today at 0830ET.
• The Trump administration has accused Australia of breaking a promise to limit aluminium exports, which is a dramatic challenge to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese over his bid to gain an exemption from American trade barriers that could slam the economy. (per SMH)
• Cash ACGBs are 4-5bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -10bps.
• Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
• The bills strip is -2 to -5 across contracts.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps firmer across meetings today, with late 2025 leading. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (120%), with the probability of a February cut at 82% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
• Today, the local calendar will see Home Loans data.
• This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$400mn of the 2.75% 21 May 2041 bond today and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday. 

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 96.310/360 High Feb 7 / High Dec 11 
• PRICE: 96.150 @ 16:03 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

A medium-term bear cycle in Aussie 3-yr futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. On the upside, an extension higher would signal scope for 96.360, the Dec 11 high. Clearance of this level would open 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, a reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of the downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.

• Gold retreated from all-time highs yet still remains over 10% higher in 2025 already.
• Gold had surged throughout Tuesday as tariff headlines drove volatility, pushing gold to a new high of USD$2,942.68.
• During day Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that further interest-rate cuts were likely delayed, so as not to hinder the progress made on inflation.
• As gold does not pay interest, it is sensitive to interest rate cuts as that reduces the cost of financing.
• Gold gave back the gains made earlier to finish the US trading day at $2,897.87
• Wednesday sees the start of earnings releases from major gold companies with Barrick Gold Corp first to report, followed by Newmont Corp.
• Expectations remain high for gold producers given bullions surge over the last year and investors will focus on whether this is translating to margin improvements in their results.