BUND TECHS: (H5) Tests Resistance
RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 134.06 High Dec 23 ‘24
- RES 2: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 132.97 High Feb 13 / 26 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 132.83 @ 05:50 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: 131.83/26 Low Feb 24 / 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 130.11 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
Bund futures are holding on to this week’s gains. Recent gains still appear corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and attention is on key short-term resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal and expose 133.71, the Feb 5 high. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. A break of this support would resume the bear cycle that started Feb 5.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Tests Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2520/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27
- PRICE: 1.2445 @ 06:00 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 1.2387/2294 20-day EMA / Low Jan 23
- SUP 2: 1.2229 Low Jan 21
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA, marking an extension of the reversal that started Jan 13. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2520 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10 low and bear trigger.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 117.820 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 117.627 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 117.490 Low Dec 30
- RES 1: 117.133/180 20-day EMA / High Jan 22
- PRICE: 116.800 @ 05:37 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 116.550/280 Low Jan 24 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
A short-term bullish corrective phase in Bobl futures is in play - for now - despite the pullback from its recent highs. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal and the start of the correction. An extension higher would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.133, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.
EURUSD TECHS: Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.0696 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 2: 1.0574 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27
- PRICE: 1.0438 @ 05:48 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 1.0388 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0260 Low Jan 15
- SUP 3: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD remains in a short-term bull cycle - a correction - and continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 1.0459. A clear break of it would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 1.0574, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch is 1.0388, the 20-day EMA. A move through the EMA would signal a possible reversal.
