TTF NATGAS TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points North

Feb-07 13:25
  • RES 4: €59.05 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 22 - Dec 16 swing   
  • RES 3: €58.00 - Round number resistance
  • RES 2: €57.40 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 22 - Dec 16 swing
  • RES 1: €56.06 - 1.500 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 22 - Dec 16 swing                    
  • PRICE: €54.90 @ 13:14 GMT Feb 7
  • SUP 1: €50.32 - 20-day EMA     
  • SUP 2: €47.82 - 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 3: €43.32 - Low Jan 10 
  • SUP 4: €39.06 - Low Dec 16 and a key support

A bull cycle in TTF Gas futures is intact and this week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on €56.06, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at €50.32, the 20-day EMA.

Historical bullets

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call fly strip

Jan-08 13:24

0RK5/0RM5 98/98.25/98.37 broken c fly strip, bought for 10.75 in 2k.

US DATA: ADP Job Stayers See Softest Pay Growth Since Mid-2021

Jan-08 13:24

ADP Pay Insights data showed broadly similar trends to Nov although job stayer wage growth saw a larger moderation. 

  • Job changers: 7.1%Y/Y, holding most of the acceleration to 7.2% in Nov.
  • Job stayers: 4.6%Y/Y after 4.8%, although by pushing below the 4.7% of Sep and Oct it’s a new recent low.
  • These figures show median Y/Y change in annual pay. 
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Source: ADP

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Bearish Trend Sequence Intact

Jan-08 13:22
  • RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger 
  • RES 3: 110-25   High Dec 12   
  • RES 2: 110-04   50-day EMA  
  • RES 1: 109-04+ 20-day EMA
  • PRICE:‌‌ 108-02 @ 13:11 GMT Jan 08
  • SUP 1: 107-28+ Intraday low  
  • SUP 2: 107-21+ Low May 29 ‘24 (cont)   
  • SUP 3: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
  • SUP 4: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support

The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. This week’s fresh cycle low confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Price has traded through the 108-00 handle exposing 107-19+ next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 109-04+, the 20-day EMA.