TTF NATGAS TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points North

0RK5/0RM5 98/98.25/98.37 broken c fly strip, bought for 10.75 in 2k.

ADP Pay Insights data showed broadly similar trends to Nov although job stayer wage growth saw a larger moderation. 

• Job changers: 7.1%Y/Y, holding most of the acceleration to 7.2% in Nov.
• Job stayers: 4.6%Y/Y after 4.8%, although by pushing below the 4.7% of Sep and Oct it’s a new recent low.
• These figures show median Y/Y change in annual pay. 

• RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 110-25   High Dec 12   
• RES 2: 110-04   50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 109-04+ 20-day EMA
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-02 @ 13:11 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 107-28+ Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 107-21+ Low May 29 ‘24 (cont)   
• SUP 3: 107-19+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
• SUP 4: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support

The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. This week’s fresh cycle low confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Price has traded through the 108-00 handle exposing 107-19+ next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 109-04+, the 20-day EMA.