EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

Austria, Spain and France are all due to hold auctions this week, whilst Finland and Belgium are due to hold ORI auctions. We also pencil in syndications from Belgium, Germany and Italy (although these are dependent upon relatively stable market conditions). We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E41.0bln, broadly in line with the E40.9bln issued last week.

• This morning, Austria will hold an RAGB auction selling a combined E1.725bln of the 5-year 3.45% Oct-30 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A38239) and the 15-year 3.20% Jul-39 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3D3Q8).
• On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli and ObliEi auction to sell a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59), the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43), and the 4.00% Oct-54 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012M93). E250-750mln of the 1.15% Nov-36 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012O18) will also be on offer.
• Also on Thursday, France will hold a LT OAT auction. As expected, there is another large target range, with E11-13bln on offer. Also as we expected, France will launch a new 10-year 3.20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5) alongside reopening the 30-year on-the-run 3.25% May-55 OAT (ISIN: FR001400OHF4). Two off-the-run issues will also be on offer the 1.25% May-36 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154044) and the 1.25% May-38 OAT (ISIN: FR0014009O62).
• On Thursday, Finland will hold an ORI operation to sell up to E0.4bln. Details will be announced the preceding day.
• Finally on Friday, Belgium will hold an ORI operation. Details will be announced the preceding day.

For more details on issuance this week and next week see the full document here: EZ250204.pdf

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 155.72/156.75 20-day EMA / High Jan 23       
• PRICE: 155.23 @ 06:49 GMT Feb 4
• SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18  
• SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12   
• SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg   

USDJPY is in consolidation mode. The primary trend condition is bullish, however, the Jan 27 move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of the bear leg would open 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.

Spain, Belgium, the ESM and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany, the Netherlands and France have already issued. We expect issuance to be E25.5bln in first round operations, up from E19.3bln last week.

• This morning, Spain will sell a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the 6-month Aug 8, 2025 letras and the new 12-month Feb 6, 2026 letras.
• Also today, Belgium will look to sell E2.2-2.6bln of 3/6/11-month TCs: an indicative E0.8bln each of the May 8, 2025 TC, the Aug 14, 2025 TC and the Jan 15, 2026 TC.
• Thirdly today, the ESM will issue up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month May 8, 2025 bills.
• Finally tomorrow, the EU will come to the market to sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month May 9, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the new 6-month Aug 8, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill.

For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.