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CANADA: Next BoC Seen As ~50/50 Between 25bp Cut And Pause Pre CPI
Feb-18 13:27
- Ahead of Canadian CPI, BoC-dated OIS has softened a little and shows 13bp of cuts for the Mar 12 decision.
- GoCs underperform Tsys across the curve with both back from cash closures yesterday.
- GoC yields are 5.5-7bp higher across the curve vs 2-4bp for Tsys.
- The 2Y Can-US yield differential sits at -150bps (+4bp) off early Feb fresh multi-decade lows of -164bps.
- USDCAD recently seen session highs of 1.4213 for highs since Thursday after a period of relatively stability.
- Recent declines away from tariff concern highs has seen a bearish theme, with support at 1.4107 (50% retrace of Sep 25 2024 – Feb 3 bull cycle). To the upside, resistance isn’t seen until 1.4380 (Feb 10 high).
US: SFR Morning Option trades
Feb-18 13:21
- SFRH5 96.06c, traded for half in 4k.
- SFRJ5 95.87/95.81/95.62p ladder, traded for 4 in 2k.
- SFRK5 97.43c, traded for 0.75 in 2k.
- SFRM5 95.93/96.06cs, traded for 1.5 in 7.5k.
- SFRM5 95.68p, traded for 2.5 in 3k.
- SFRU5 95.93^, traded for 37 in 2k and 36.5 in 3.5k.
- 0QH5 95.93/96.06/96.18/96.43c condor, traded 3.5 in 5k.
- 2QU5 96.62/97.00cs, traded 5 in 3k.
GILT PAOF RESULTS: GBP359.749mln of the 4.00% Oct-63 Gilt sold.
Feb-18 13:03
- GBP437.500mln had been on offer.
- This leaves GBP16.898bln of the gilt in issue.