GBPUSD TECHS: Has Breached Resistance
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
- PRICE: 1.2487 @ 06:26 GMT Feb 6
- SUP 1: 1.2420/2249 20-day EMA / Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
Gains this week in GBPUSD have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and delivered a print above 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, and 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. A break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 1.2420, the 20-day EMA.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 07-Jan | 0930 | Dec | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 08-Jan | 1005 | BOE's Woods Financial Services Regulation hearing | |
| 09-Jan | 0001 | KPMG/REC Jobs Report | |
| 09-Jan | 0001 | Dec | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 09-Jan | 0930 | Dec | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 09-Jan | 1600 | BOE's Breeden Speech at University of Edinburgh | |
| 14-Jan | 0830 | BOE's Breeden speech on Financial Stability | |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Consumer inflation report |
| 15-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Producer Prices |
| 15-Jan | 1630 | BOE's Taylor Speech on Inflation Dynamics and Outlook | |
| 16-Jan | 0700 | Nov | GDP / Trade/ Services/ Production / Construction |
| 17-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Retail Sales |
| 21-Jan | 0700 | Nov/Dec | Labour Market Survey |
| 22-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 22-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Public Sector Finances |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 07-Jan | 745 | FR | HICP (p) |
| 07-Jan | 830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 07-Jan | 900 | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 07-Jan | 900 | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 07-Jan | 1000 | EU | HICP (p) / Unemployment |
| 07-Jan | 1000 | IT | HICP (p) |
| 08-Jan | 700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders/ Retail Sales |
| 08-Jan | 745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment / Foreign Trade |
| 08-Jan | 1000 | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
| 08-Jan | 1000 | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
| 08-Jan | 1000 | EU | PPI |
| 09-Jan | 700 | DE | Trade Balance / Industrial production |
| 09-Jan | 900 | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 09-Jan | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 10-Jan | 745 | FR | Industrial Production / Consumer Spending |
| 10-Jan | 800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 10-Jan | 900 | IT | Retail Sales |
GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2729 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 1.2680 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2558 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2544 @ 06:16 GMT Jan 7
- SUP 1: 1.2353 Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 1.2300 Low Apr 22 2024
- SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 2023
- SUP 4: 1.2261 2.0% 10-dma envelope
The sharp sell-off in GBPUSD last Thursday confirmed a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Monday’s strong gains are - for now - considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2558, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is 1.2353, the Jan 2 low.
