USDJPY TECHS: Has Cleared The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 1.2887 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg 
• RES 1: 1.2754 High Mar 4
• PRICE: 1.2714 @ 16:24 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 1.2545 50-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
• SUP 3: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 1.2249 Low Feb 3    

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and Tuesday’s initial strong gains reinforce this theme. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2545, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg.                

RRP usage climbs to $135.257B this afternoon from $119.987B Monday. Compares to $58.770B (lowest level since mid-April 2021) on February 14. The number of counterparties falls to 32 from 50 prior.

• "GERMANY'S CONSERVATIVES LEADER MERZ: TO SUBMIT APPLICATION TO CHANGE DEBT BRAKE IN GERMANY" - Reuters
• "SPECIAL FUND TO BE PRESENTED NEXT WEEK"
• "ECONOMY MUST BE BROUGHT BACK ON GROWTH PATH, WTIH CREDIT FINANCED SPECIAL FUND WORTH 500 BLN EUROS"
• "500 BILLION EUROS FUND FOR INFRASTRUCTURE, 100 BLN EUROS OF IT WILL GO TO STATES"
• "GERMANY'S CONSERVATIVES LEADER MERZ: ALL DEFENSE SPENDING ABOVE ONE PERCENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT WOULD BE EXEMPT FROM THE DEBT BRAKE RESTRICTIONS" - Reuters
• EURUSD extending higher following these latest remarks as Germany shows a willingness to bridge the US gap on military assistance.
• Following the earlier break of 1.0533 resistance, EURUSD did briefly trade down to the 1.0500 mark but has since resumed the appreciating trend, printing a fresh session high at 1.0572. A close above 1.0533 would highlight an important technical break and provide the foundation for a stronger bullish short-term theme, opening 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. Above here, 1.0677 will be of note, a retracement point.