EURJPY TECHS: Has Pierced The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 162.49 High Nov 22
- RES 2: 161.59 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 161.55 High Dec 13
- PRICE: 161.34 @ 16:34 GMT Dec 13
- SUP 1: 157.87 Low Dec 09
- SUP 2: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023
EURJPY is building onto its recent gains and a corrective cycle remains in play. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has recently been breached. The clear break of this level strengthens a bearish theme and opens 155.15, the Sep 16 low. The 20-day EMA has been pierced. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 161.59.
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EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 165.43/166.69 High Nov 8 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 164.07 @ 16:41 GMT Nov 13
- SUP 1: 163.41/21 50-day EMA / Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The 50-day EMA lies at 163.41. It has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 161.85, the Oct 17 low. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and recent gains suggest scope for a climb towards 167.40, a Fibonacci retracement point.
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COMMODITIES: Gold Corrective Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- WTI closed higher on the day, having sharply dipped earlier without a clear driver. Upside is likely to be capped by soft China demand expectations and continued strength in the US dollar.
- WTI Dec 24 rose by 0.4% at $68.4/bbl.
- The EIA has kept its forecast for global oil demand in 2024 stable at 103.1m b/d, according to its November Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and a move lower would expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at $72.88, the Nov 7 high.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has declined by another 0.6% today to $2,584/oz as the US dollar posted further gains, despite the softer-than-expected US supercore CPI inflation data.
- The latest pullback in gold appears to be corrective, but the recent weakness has brought the yellow metal below the 50-day EMA, at $2,642.0, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards $2,547.0 the Sep 18 low.
- Copper is also down by another 1.3% at $408/lb, taking losses this week to more than 5%.
- Citi has cut its short-term outlook for copper prices by 11% as likely tariff hikes under a Trump presidency and weaker-than-expected China stimulus will weigh on demand.
- This week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme, with focus on $404.20, the Sep 5 low, followed by $396.45, the Aug 7 low and the bear trigger.
