EMERGING MARKETS: Headlines Suggesting Reciprocal Tariff Delays Weigh on USD
Feb-13 15:36
- *TRUMP RECIPROCAL TARIFFS TO TAKE EFFECT SOME MONTHS LATER: CNBC
- "I’m told the new tariffs President Trump announces today will NOT go into effect today. There will be a time delay of some months, possibly an April 1 start date. That’s still TBD. This will be a presidential memorandum today not an executive order, and USTR will be tasked with developing next steps." - CNBC's Javers
- That's confirmation of what Javers had been saying on air on CNBC, so effectively meaning the news conference today will *not* be an announcement on the immediate installation of reciprocal tariffs, which are to be time-delayed by ~six weeks and presumably mean there's space for negotiations.
- USD softer on the back of that, almost exactly reversing the slippage for EUR/USD, GBP/USD on Trump's initial Truth Social blast. EUR/USD back above 1.04 and now pressing session highs.
- In tandem, USDZAR briefly goes offered, sharply paring gains from levels around 18.57 to 18.50. The comments have very little to do with Mexico, however general sentiment does bring USDMXN back towards session lows, just above the 20.50 mark.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
SONIA: Latest Large SONIA Options
Jan-14 15:31
- SFIM5 95.75/96.00cs, bought for 6.75 in 24k.
- SFIM5 95.70/96.00cs, bought for 8.75 and 9 in 20.5k.
US: Speaker Johnson Looks To Extend Debt Limit For Entirety Of Trump's Term
Jan-14 15:28
Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reports on X that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is looking to extend the federal debt limit for the entirety of President-elect Donald Trump's term and will discuss options at a Republican conference meeting today.
- Sherman adds Johnson said the move would be “costly” - meaning democrats would exact a price for their votes, should the extension be moved outside of reconciliation - the mechanism by which the government can pass budget-related legislation along party lines.
- Johnson said he’s “agnostic” whether the debt limit rides on reconciliation or via regular appropriations where it will need Democrat support. While Republicans are in a strong position to legislate a debt ceiling hike via reconciliation, including it in a major border security/energy/tax package could leave the GOP agenda vulnerable to a rebellion from conservative deficit hawks.
- Johnson's comments come amid a spat with Democrats after the Speaker yesterday floated tying the debt limit to California wildfire aid. As a lengthy debt limit extension outside of reconciliation will require Democrat support. Johnson's move to attach the debt limit to a supplemental disaster aid could hasten passage of the bill but will certainly draw Democrat criticism.
- Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) said, in response to reports of the debt limit-aid tie-up: "They need to raise the debt ceiling to pass their massive tax cut for the super wealthy. So the message is: we will only rebuild California if our billionaire and corporate friends get their money. Unreal."
SONIA: Sonia call spread vs put trades for more
Jan-14 15:24
SFIZ5 96.35/97.00cs x3 vs 95.60p x1, bought the cs for -2 in 10k total.
