HEALTHCARE: Healthcare: Performance Month to Date

• RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28      
• RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart   
• RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5   
• RES 1: 116.98 High Mar 7       
• PRICE: 116.52 @ Close Mar 7 
• SUP 1: 115.83 Low Mar 6 
• SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing  
• SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing   

BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition following last week’s steep sell-off. The move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at last Wednesday’s 118.56 high.

Bund futures tested Asia lows ahead of the old futures open, but the contract sticks within Friday’s range, last -34 at 127.32. Cues from e-minis seemed to drive things in Asia.

• Bearish technical theme in the contract intact, although it is in oversold territory.
• Initial support and resistance levels of note at 126.64/128.29.
• No lasting impact from firmer-than-expected German industrial production and a narrower-than-expected trade surplus.
• In German politics, the CDU/CSU and SPD have agreed to deepen coalition talks.
• Meanwhile, Chancellor-in-waiting Merz flagged his openness to broadening definition of defence to allow other ministries to benefit from the tabled debt brake tweaks. The Greens seemed to move further away from a fiscal agreement, underscoring the potential for ongoing headwinds in the time-pressured negotiations.
• ECB Executive Board member Schnabel sounded typically hawkish over the weekend, while Governing Council member Kazaks was non-committal when it came to the Bank’s April decision.
• Comments from ECB’s Nagel and the ECB’s survey of monetary analysts are due today.
• Supply-wise, the EU is scheduled to hold a syndication this week. We see a good chance of a new 2045 line being issued. The EU’s biannual funding plan also highlighting the prospect of a new 3-year bond, but we think that may come later in H1.
• Further out, U.S. CPI data (Wednesday) headlines this week’s macro calendar, with the ECB’s Watchers conference also eyed.

• RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger         
• RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart  
• RES 1: 92.63 HIgh Mar 7                     
• PRICE: 92.10 @ Close Mar 7
• SUP 1: 91.67/90.71 Low Mar 7 / 6                                     
• SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing  
• SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing   
• SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing 

Gilt futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and gains are - for now - considered corrective. Last week, the contract traded through a key support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is oversold, the latest bounce has allowed this set-up to unwind. Initial resistance is 92.63, the Mar 5 high.