BUNDS: Heavy Italian supply and the Data picks up

• A tighter 10 ticks overnight range session for the German Bund, but the contract did gap lower on report that Trump's Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is backing to Levy a 2.5% Universal tariffs on US imports that would increase on a Month to Month Basis.
• Moves have been far more pronounced in the Dollar.
• Nonetheless, initial support will be at 131.33 (Monday's gap) in Bund, followed by the 131.00 figure.
• The small opening gap was up to 131.61, but this has now been closed on the Cash open.
• Better resistance is still seen at 132.22 and 132.57 initially.
• There's very little on the Data front for today, these start Tomorrow, but really picks up on Thursday/Friday.
• For Today, US prelim durable goods is the notable release.
• SUPPLY: Netherlands €2.5bn 2030 (would equate to 22.5k Bobl) could weigh, UK sells a 2035 linker (won't impact Gilt), Italy €3bn 2027 (equates to 26.5k short 2yr BTP) could weigh, the 2029, 2036 Linkers won't impact BTP.
• US sells $30bn of 2yr FRN (won't Impact Treasuries), sells $44bn of 7yr notes (the main focus for the US).
• SYNDICATION: Austria 10yr and 2049 Green.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Villeroy, Cippolone.

• The DMO will announce at 7:30GMT whether it will hold a tender on Thursday this week for a potential conventional sub-5 year gilt (and the size of the tender).
• As we noted yesterday, we think that the 0.125% Jan-26 gilt (ISIN: GB00BL68HJ26) is the most likely candidate with a size of GBP1.0-2.0bln probable.
• See our rationale in our bullet yesterday.

Norwegian SA retail sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.1% in December, while November’s reading was revised up a tenth to 0.4%. On a 3m/3m basis, sales grew 0.5% for the second consecutive month, and rose 0.7% Y/Y (vs 0.2% prior).  Similar dynamics were observed in retail sales excluding motor vehicles and fuel (1.0% 3m/3m vs 1.3% prior; 3.0% Y/Y vs 0.9% prior).

• Statistics Norway notes that pharmacies, grocery stores and stores selling beverages saw lower retail sales in December, but this was offset by increases in online shopping (for Christmas in particular).
• Overall, retail trade looks to have outperformed the -0.3% Q/Q expectation from contacts in the Q4 Regional Network Survey.
• The household goods consumption index – which feeds into the quarterly GDP calculation – fell 1.1% M/M in December but rose 1.0% on a 3m/3m basis (vs 0.5% prior).