OIL: Hedge Fund Managers Boost Net Bullish Nymex Gasoline Bets: Bloomberg

• RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 95.851 - High Dec 11 
• PRICE: 95.435 @ 20:03 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 95.373 - 0.618 proj of the Dec 11 - 23 - 31 price swing  
• SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 94.590 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

The Aussie 10-yr futures contract continues to trade below the Dec 11 high of 95.851, and has traded through the Dec low. A stronger bearish reversal would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher and a breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle and refocus attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
• RES 3: 0.6388 50-day EMA               
• RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18   
• RES 1: 0.6269/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
• PRICE: 0.6214 @ 20:30 GMT Jan 8 
• SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31 
• SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair has pulled back from Monday’s high. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6269, 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6388.

• Markets remain sensitive to headline risk Wednesday, stocks and rates sold off after early headlines reported Trump is considering declaring a state of emergency to enact universal tariffs (opposite reaction from Monday's early rally on WAPO article that suggested a watered down tariff plan). Mar'25 10Y futures breached round number support to 107-28.5 low, 10Y yield hit a high of 4.7280% on the move.
• Rates and stocks bounced after Fed Gov Waller argued for further rate cuts if the economy unfolds as expected, while adding he doesn't see tariffs as being inflationary. Mar'25 10Y futures climbed to 108-09 while curves climbed to new/near 3Y highs (2s10s 42.887, 5s30s 48.363).
• Muted reaction to jobless claims data that were on balance a little better than expected (201k vs. 215k est), ADP employment was softer than expected in December at 122k (cons 140k) after an unrevised 146k in Nov.
• Risk sentiment cooled slightly after the December FOMC minutes underscored a shift toward a slower pace in cutting rates citing rising upside risks to inflation and elevated uncertainty over potential changes in trade and immigration policy from incoming Republican leadership.
• Reminder: Open outcry and CME Globex trading session for interest rate products will have an early close of 1300 ET and 1315ET, respectively on January 9, 2025. All transactions submitted on CME ClearPort will have normal hours. Settlement prices will be derived at 1300ET. Sole data point tomorrow: Challenger Job Cuts at 0730ET; Tsy 4- and 8W bill auctions, and several Fed speakers through the day.