AMERICAS OIL: Hedge Funds Boost Net Bearish Nymex Diesel Bets to 5-Week High

The Treasury curve bear steepened Wednesday, with UK developments and US headlines at the fore.

• Treasuries started the session on the front foot, helped in part by European developments including softer-than-expected UK CPI. Later, UK developments would come to the fore again as the government fiscal announcement first brought Gilts (and Treasuries alongside) first lower and then back higher.
• Headlines emerging through the day that President Trump planned an imminent announcement on auto tariffs (confirmed to be announced by the White House for 4pm ET Wednesday) weighed on risk appetite, with major equity aggregates down 1+% and the US dollar index rising to 3 week highs. That in turn helped Treasuries off late morning lows.
• The 5Y Treasury Note auction was the weakest since at least October, tailing 0.5bp and drawing a slightly negative reaction in the broader Treasury market.
• In a limited data slate, durable goods orders/shipments surprised to the upside, another positive on the "hard" data front compared with the softer survey data seen elsewhere.
• Regional Fed presidents Musalem and Kashkari echoed the recent FOMC theme of patience in making any future rate decisions, amid high levels of govenrment policy uncertainty.
• Latest cash levels: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.9bps at 4.0043%, 5-Yr is up 1.1bps at 4.0789%, 10-Yr is up 2.1bps at 4.3345%, and 30-Yr is up 2.5bps at 4.6833%. The Jun 25 T-Note future is down 5.5/32 at 110-18.5, having traded in a range of 110-12.5 to 110-23.
• Thursday's data slate is on the heavy side, with the third reading of Q4 GDP, Feb trade balance, and initial jobless claims among other items on the docket, while we also hear from Boston Fed's Collins and Richmond's Barkin.

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg  
• RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3  
• RES 1: 150.96 50-day EMA and a key short-term resistance  
• PRICE: 150.57 @ 16:49 GMT Mar 26 
• SUP 1: 148.18/146.54 Low Mar 20 / 11 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 147.57 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg 

USDJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The primary trend direction is down and recent gains are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 150.96, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger rally. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus sights on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.  

Wednesday's U.S. rates options flow included:

• SFRZ5 95.62/95.37ps, bought for 1.75 in 60k total (pit and screen)
• SFRM5 95.50p, bought for half in 20k