AMERICAS OIL: Hedge Funds Cut Net Bullish Nymex Gasoline Bets to 4-Week Low

• Crude is higher on the day but remains within the weekly range and well down from Feb levels. Traders remain bearish, driven by concerns around global demand, centred around the US and China, coupled with rising OPEC+ output from April.
• WTI Apr 25 is up by 2.1% at $67.7/bbl.
• OPEC has kept its 2025 world oil demand growth forecast stable at 1.45m b/d for 2025, according to their March Monthly Oil Market Report.
• A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact, with initial support at $65.22, the Mar 5 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.10, the 50-day EMA.
• Meanwhile, Henry Hub has fallen sharply, as steady underlying fundamentals and the absence of any late season cold shots in the forecast have traders exiting bullish positions, pushing prices lower.
• US Natgas Apr 25 is down by 8.3% at $4.08/mmbtu.
• Spot gold has risen by 0.6% to $2,935/oz, bringing the yellow metal to its highest level since Feb 25.
• The trend condition in gold remains bullish, with attention of on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection.
• Elsewhere, copper has rallied by a further 1.8% to $485/lb. The red metal hit a new 10-month high around $490 earlier in the session, narrowing the gap on $500 round number resistance.
• Goldman Sachs forecasts a surge in US copper imports soon, driven by expectations of tariffs from the US administration.

• RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
• RES 3: 151.85 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 151.30 High Mar 3 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 149.88 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 148.68 @ 14:57 GMT Mar 12 
• SUP 1: 146.54 Low Mar 11  
• SUP 2: 145.90 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg 

A bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play and the latest recovery appears corrective. A fresh cycle low earlier this week strengthens a bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. This opens 145.92 next, the Oct 4 2024 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 151.30, Mar 3 high.    

Heavy SOFR put volume reported during the NY session, followed sale of over 70,000 Apr'25 put condors late overnight. Treasury option volume less robust, flow paired. Underlying futures weaker, near morning lows while projected rate cuts through mid-2025 continue to recede vs. early morning levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -0.2bp (-1bp), May'25 at -8.6bp (-9.4bp), Jun'25 at -24.6bp (-26bp), Jul'25 at -35.2bp (-37.5bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +8,000 SFRU5/SFRZ5 95.37/95.62/95.87 put fly spread, 0.5 net, Sep over
  • +7,000 0QU5 97.00/97.50 call spds vs 95.75 puts, 0.25 net call spd over ref 96.465
  • +2,000 0QM5 96.93/97.43 4x5 call spds vs 95.81 puts, 7.5 net/call spd over ref 96.45
  • +2,000 SFRM5 95.93 straddles 27.0 ref 95.95
  • +7,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.87/95.93 put trees, 1.0 ref 95.945
  • +4,000 SFRZ6 95.00/95.50/96.00 put trees, 1.5 ref 96.42
  • -5,000 2QM5 96.12/96.37 call spds vs.3QJ5 96.12/96.37 call spd flattener 2.0 net
  • -5,000 SFRJ5/SFRK5 95.87/95.93 1x2 put spd strip 5.0-4.25 ref 95.94
  • +10,000 SFRJ5 95.68 puts, 0.25 ref 95.94
  • -2,500 0QZ5 96.50/97.00 call spds vs 95.25 puts, 10.5 net/c spd, 96.43
  • -4,000 SFRZ5 95.75/96.25 put spds, 21.0 ref 96.325
  • +5,000 SFRM5 95.62/95.81/96.00 put tree vs. 96.06/96.31 call spd, 1 net ref 95.95
  • Block, 5,050 SFRM5 95.81/95.93 2x1 put spds, 1.25
  • -72,000 SFRJ 95.68/95.75/95.81/95.87 put condors, 1.5 ref 95.995
  • 5,000 SFRJ 95.62/95.68/95.75/95.81 put condors
  • +10,000 SFRM5 96.00/96.25/96.37/96.50 call condors vs. 95.62/95.75 put spds, 1.75-2.0
  • +10,000 0QH5 96.31 puts 1.0ref 96.505 (expire Friday)
  • 3,000 SFRZ5 96.50/97.00/97.50 call flys ref 96.385
  • +5,000 0QJ5 96.00/96.25 2x1 put spds, 3.0 ref 96.53 to -.54
  • 3,000 SFRM5 96.00/96.18/96.37 call flys ref 95.98
  • 6,000 SFRZ5 96.50/96.75 call spds ref 96.385
• Treasury Options:
  • 6,000 TYM5 108.5/109.5 put spds, 21 ref 110-23
  • 5,000 USK5 122/126 call spds, 17 ref 116-26
  • +10,000 TYM5 112.5 calls, 40
  • -10,000 TYJ5 109.75 puts, 10
  • +5,000 TYJ5 110.5 straddles, 63 ref 110-19.5
  • 10,000 FVK5 110/112 call spds ref 107-27 to -24
  • +10,000 TYJ5 110.25/110.75 2x1 put spds, 3-4 ref 110-27.5
  • 3,100 FVM5 109.25/110.5 call spds ref 107-28.25
  • 2,000 TYJ5 109/109.5/110 put trees ref 110-26.5
  • over 4,400 TYJ5 112.25 calls, 9 ref 110-27