REAL ESTATE: Heimstaden Bostad (HEIBOS: BBB-neg / BBB-stab): FY 24

This morning’s growth and lending data won’t affect the outcome of today’s Riksbank decision, where a 25bp cut is widely expected. The Q4 flash GDP indicator was 0.2% Q/Q (vs 0.3% cons and prior) and 1.1% Y/Y (vs 1.1% cons, 0.7% prior). This was below the Riksbank’s 0.4% Q/Q and 1.2% Y/Y forecast from the December MPR. 

• As always, the flash GDP reading should be taken with a generous pinch of salt – it has been prone to large revisions in recent quarters.
• Following a weak October, the November and December readings helped growth inch into positive territory in Q4. The December monthly GDP indicator was 0.7% M/M (vs 1.3% in Nov, -0.3% Oct).
• No details are provided with the flash releases, with December consumption and private sector production data due on Feb 10.
• Riksbank policy rate cuts have started to feed through to household and business lending. In December, household lending (the majority of which is mortgage lending) grew 1.6% Y/Y for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, business lending was -0.8% Y/Y (vs -1.4% prior), the highest reading since December 2023.
• See here for MNI’s preview of the Riksbank decision at 0830GMT/0930CET

• RES 4: 2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing     
• RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high   
• RES 1: $2786.0 - HIgh Jan 24      
• PRICE: $2758.7 @ 07:22 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: $2708.1/2675.2 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Gold is trading closer to its recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the recent breach of resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2675.2, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 11     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.45 High Jan 2   
• RES 1: 119.75 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 119.02 @ Close Jan 29 
• SUP 1: 118.27/117.16 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

Recent gains in BTP futures highlight a corrective phase. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next firm resistance at 119.75, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of the 50-day average would strengthen a bullish condition. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish and the pullback from the Jan 22 high may be an early reversal signal. The bear trigger has been defined at 117.16, the Jan 13 low.