EUROPEAN INFLATION: Higher Belgium Services CPI in Jan, Unclear Signal for EZ
Jan-30 13:00
Belgian HICP inflation remained at 4.4% in January according to the Statbel flash estimate. National...
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US: Republicans Outnumber Democrats For First Time In Decades
Dec-31 12:47
New analysis of survey data from Gallup shows that there are now more Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in decades.
- Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights notes: “Historically, this is practically unheard of. Democrats have held a longstanding advantage in party identification that dates back to the New Deal, with Republicans drawing even on only a couple of occasions — the 1994 Republican Revolution and the immediate post-9/11 period.”
- Ruffini continues: “We are now entering a period where the roughly even party ID split reflects the highly competitive nature of national elections. All things being equal we should expect a 50-50 political environment to yield tied party ID, rather than a 3- or 4-point Democratic ID edge. Good Democratic years will mean more Democratic identifiers in the electorate, and good Republican years will mean more Republican identifiers.”
Figure 1: US Adult Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years
Source: Gallup
STIR: Large Sep'25/Dec'25 SOFR Skew Spread Package
Dec-31 12:45
Checking direction on skew package:
- 24,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.50 call spds ref 96.035 vs.
- 12,000 SFRZ5 95.50 puts ref 96.07
USD: Finding a broader bid
Dec-31 12:15
- A broader bid is going through the Dollar, printing an intraday high against the Pound, AUD, CAD, CHF, ZAR, and NZD.
- Market participants will be looking at the AUDUSD and the Psychological 0.6200 level, printed a 0.6199 low on the 19th December, this was also its lowest level since October 2022.
- A clear break through that area, will open to 0.6170, the 2022 low and lowest level since April 2020.
