EUROPEAN INFLATION: Higher Belgium Services CPI in Jan, Unclear Signal for EZ
Jan-30 13:00
Belgian HICP inflation remained at 4.4% in January according to the Statbel flash estimate. National CPI (non-HICP) came in at 4.08% in January, from 3.16% in December.
- Core CPI printed 3.14% meanwhile, compared to 2.91% in December, driven by services inflation accelerating to 4.13% from 3.94%. This means the yearly services rate continues to trend broadly sideways in Belgium (see chart below).
- Belgian January sequential services CPI came in at 0.47% M/M. For comparison, this was 0.78% M/M in 2022, 1.51% in 2023 and 0.28% in 2024, so this month's print still appears elevated versus the recent past. Belgian January sequential services inflation's correlation with the respective Eurozone series appears quite weak, however, so while it suggests that the current services pace is still high in Belgium in the light of the January reset effect ('Yearly Price Resets Seen Key For 2025 Services Trends' - MNI, out earlier today), it remains unclear if this provides much signal for the Eurozone-wide services print to be released on Monday.
- The press release notes that food (inc alcohol) inflation now stands at 2.54% compared to 1.85% last month. Energy inflation increased from 7.40% in December to 15.89% in January and contributes +1.32ppts to headline inflation.
- For context, Belgium made up 3.8% of the total Eurozone HICP basket in 2024.
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US: Republicans Outnumber Democrats For First Time In Decades
Dec-31 12:47
New analysis of survey data from Gallup shows that there are now more Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in decades.
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Figure 1: US Adult Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years
Source: Gallup
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Checking direction on skew package:
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- A clear break through that area, will open to 0.6170, the 2022 low and lowest level since April 2020.
