POWER: Higher Winds Drop French and German Spot, France Eyes Discount for 21 Feb
Feb-19 11:59
Stronger winds in both Germany and France caused a dip in their respective spot prices. German prices remain lower due to slightly higher wind load factors than France. However, the French DA could flip to a discount on 21 February as wind forecasts climb to a 46% load factor, approximately 14 percentage points higher than in Germany.
- The German day-ahead spot settled at €94.95/MWh from €110.83/MWh on the previous day.
- The French day-ahead spot cleared at €99.49/MWh from €117.31/MWh on the previous day.
- Germany was at a €4.54/MWh discount from a €6.48/MWh discount in the previous session.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 22.05GW during base load on Thursday, up from 20.69GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind output in Germany will then be at 20.73GW, or 32% load factor on 21 February (Fri) – which could sustain downward pressure on delivery costs.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge higher on Thursday to 63.44GW, from 63.42GW on Wednesday despite mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 5.8C on Thursday, from 1.4C on Wednesday and above the seasonal average of 4.4C, according to Bloomberg.
- German power demand will then fall to 61.20GW on 21 February.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to fall to 33.32GWh/h on Thursday, down from 33.6GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
- In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise to 7.20GW during base load on Thursday, up from 5.79GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind will then be at a 46% load factor, or 10.84GW on 21 February – which could cause domestic costs to fall and place them at a discount to Germany.
- Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 60.06GW on Thursday, down from 62.72GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to rise to 11C on Thursday, up from 6.2C on Wednesday and above the seasonal normal of 5.6C, according to Bloomberg.
- Nuclear availability in France was stable at 80% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
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